It used to be said that only degenerates would bet on the NFL preseason. However, that’s no longer the case. In fact, betting on NFL preseason games is more popular than ever.
While it’s true that preseason games don’t count for anything, there’s still value to be found.
You have to be more selective with your preseason bets and stick to straight bets. Don’t bother with parlays, teasers or other exotic bets until the regular season starts and teams are playing to win.
Follow the Money
Betting on the NFL preseason has become more popular among casual bettors in recent years, but bookmakers estimate 50%-70% of preseason action is from professional handicappers.
With that being said, the best tip I can give you is to follow the money.
What I mean by that, is to identify where the sharp money is going and jump on that. You don’t want to bet on every game either. Only bet on the best opportunities.
Here’s a recent example from the 2019 Hall of Fame Game between the Broncos and Falcons.
The Falcons opened up as high as a -2.5 point favorite. Sharps quickly started throwing money at the Broncos. The line began moving and ended up closing with the Broncos as -2.5 favorites.
Line moves can be more drastic during the preseason because sharp money can quickly move lines when there isn’t as much public money keeping the book balanced.
Follow the News
Every team will have position battles heading into the preseason, some more important than others. It’s also important to know how much time starters are expected to play.
Starters will generally ease into action and play more in the final two weeks. A team integrating a lot of new starters may opt to play them more throughout the preseason to build chemistry.
Targeting teams that are playing their starters longer is often a viable strategy.
I also like to target teams with battles at important positions. For example, if two QBs are going to be fighting for the starting job in the preseason, they’ll both be playing the best football they can.
Veteran back-up QBs often perform better than younger counterparts during the preseason as well due to limiting mistakes. Always look at the QB depth chart before placing a preseason bet.
Preseason trends can prove profitable. Some coaches simply don’t care about the preseason and have terrible records because they don’t game plan to win. They just want to examine players.
Take the Falcons for example. They’ve lost nine consecutive preseason games. They went 0-4 during the 2017 and 2018 NFL preseason. Head coach Dan Quinn is 4-13 in preseason games.
Start Betting on the 2019 NFL Preseason
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is underway. This is a great week to watch as many games as you can to see how teams are performing and then get ready for the remaining three weeks of preseason.
The NFL preseason is still fairly unpredictable, as teams aren’t motivated. You can do the research and pick the team that should win, but that doesn’t always happen when the games don’t matter.
To win money during the NFL preseason it’s important to limit the number of bets you make weekly. Target value spots where you can identify where the sharp money is and you’ll do fine.
Even a small NFL preseason profit sets your bankroll up well for the regular season.