Let’s face it, you want to win more MLB bets. We all know betting on NFL games is the king of betting, but the smarter bettor knows that a lot of money is to be made wagering on MLB games.
Betting on baseball is a bit different than the NFL. One of the big differences is just the sheer amount of games – over 2,400 per regular season. The other major difference is that because of low scoring, baseball is a moneyline sport. Bettors pick winners and don’t focus on which teams cover.
With these ideas in mind, how can you find success in betting on baseball. Here are some tips to win more MLB bets this season.
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Stay Away From Big Favorites
It’s no secret that the betting public loves favorites. Oddsmakers know that and take advantage of it by shading lines. The public loves the Yankees and Dodgers and whatever other teams are the flavors of the day.
Instead of the Dodgers being a -120 favorite in a given game, oddsmakers will jump the line up to -180 or even -200 or more. Oddsmakers know that the public will bet on them regardless of the number.
Since 2005, favorites of -150 or higher have won over 63 percent of the time. That may seem great but remember the minus-money payouts. In the long run, you would have lost over 310 units. This is not the way to win more MLB bets.
Playing a big favorite every now and again can produce wins, but consistently targeting them will dry up your betting account.
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Focus on Divisional Underdogs
Bettors can really focus on any plus-money underdog, but divisional dogs really pay off. By hitting plus-money underdogs, bettors can win at a sub-50 percent rate and still come out ahead.
When you bet $100 on an underdog and they lose, you’re out the $100. When the underdog wins, bettors get a plus-money payout.
Focusing on underdogs really pays off when the opponents are in the same division. Divisional opponents play each other 19 times each season. This makes for some familiarity and levels the playing field in favor of the underdog.
You can break this down even further by focusing on road divisional underdogs. The public tends to overvalue home field advantage. Bettors can also take advantage of games between divisional opponents where the total is set at 8.5 or higher. With more runs expected, there is more variance which favors the underdog. Focusing just on these two situations has produced enough wins for bettors to take notice.
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Fade the Public – Win More MLB Bets
If you haven’t picked up on it yet, one of the easiest MLB betting strategies is to bet against the public. More often than not, the public loses. The public loves winners. They also love Overs, games with lots of runs and action.
The public also over-values home teams and is subject to recency bias. If a team won yesterday, then they will win again today is how the public thinks.
By betting against the public, MLB bettors can take advantage of inflated numbers. Bettors also put themselves on the side of the sportsbooks, which win more often. That’s why they’re still in business.
Check the Weather
Sure, there will be rainouts and even some snow in early and late season games, but the thing you want to look for is the wind. The direction and speed of the wind can have a great impact on the outcome of a game.
Winds blowing in at a speed of 5 mph or greater tend to push totals to the Under. Think about it. Long fly balls that might have gone out of the park are now outs. Since 2005 in situations like this, the Under has cashed over 55 percent of the time.
Check the winds before a day game at Wrigley Field. With the wind blowing in at 5 mph or higher and a total of 8 or more, the Under has hit nearly 63 percent of the time since 2005.
The opposite is also true. Winds blowing out at 8 mph or higher lead to more Overs. Since 2005, games in those conditions have seen the total go Over nearly 53 percent of the time.
The Basics To Win More MLB Bets
When betting MLB, don’t forget the basics. Shop for the best lines. Getting divisional underdog at +145 instead of +140 can add up quickly when you win. Using a few basic tips will definitely help you win more MLB bets.
Bettors should also manage their bankrolls wisely and stick to their general rules. MLB bettors would also be wise to avoid parlays and teasers. The public tends to get sucked into the idea of massive payouts, but it’s the sportsbooks that are making out on parlays and teasers.
