Win CFB bets wagering on teams coming off bye weeks.
Key Points
– There are multiple ways to win CFB bets on teams coming off bye weeks.
– To win CFB bets consistently, look for certain teams off bye weeks.
Win CFB Bets on Teams Off Bye Weeks
The majority of college football teams plan a week off sometime during the course of the season. Some teams discover that the break occurs after they have only played one game due to scheduling irregularities.
The advantages of taking a break later in the season are clear. They first give players an extra week to recover physically and get ready to play at a high level once more. Perhaps more importantly, it provides the coaching staff an extra week to prepare for their next opponent.
There is also time to reflect on a team’s performance up to that point in the season. Coaches can then identify anything that can be improved. College football teams that have recently returned from a bye week are always worth paying attention to if you are a college football bettor. They can be a key in the various college football betting markets.
Win CFB Bets – Game 1
What is very interesting in college football is how a team’s performance in Week 1 affects their performance in Week 2 in a number of situations.
Often, college teams will schedule a bye early in the season. Many teams will get that bye after their first game. Teams that lose their first game and then have an extra week off are only 56-70 ATS over the last 120-plus games.
What’s even worse is those teams – loss in Game 1 and a bye in Week 2 – when playing on the road went 28-43 ATS (39.4%). It was almost the exact opposite for teams that won their game of the season.
Teams starting the season 1-0 with a bye in Week 2 went on to go 114-84-4 ATS in their next game. It’s really not hard to identify why and it can help you win CFB bets.
Teams that win their first game get two weeks to feel good about themselves. They are in a better frame of mind and practice more effectively. Coaches and players are more upbeat and they realize the implications of going 2-0 to start a season.
On the other end, a loss in Week 1 leads to some doubt. Practices probably aren’t as great and coaches realize the ramifications of starting a season 0-2. The negativity can lead to poor performances in that next game.
Most teams have moved away from a bye that early in the season. There are a few recent examples, however.
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Winner, Winner
Florida State won its first game of the 2022 college football season beating FCS Duquesne 47-7. The offense was outstanding and it was great for a program that has had its fair share of troubles over the past several years.
The Seminoles had the next week off prior to a huge game against a ranked LSU team. As stated above, the win in the first week provided FSU with enough positivity that they went into their game with LSU extremely confident.
Florida State won the game 24-23 and went on to start the season with four straight wins. That is something the program had not done in several years.
ACC rival North Carolina did the same thing. The Tar Heels beat FCS Florida A&M in Game 1, took a week off, and then came back to beat Appalachian State in a shootout, 63-61. If you are looking to win CFB bets, this is a solid bye week strategy.
What the Numbers Say
There are two conventional trains of thought when it comes to bye weeks in college football. Some bettors believe the extra week off gives players a chance to recover and get healthy. It also helps coaches in their preparations for the next opponent.
Other bettors tend to believe that the extra time off can cause a team to come out flat in its next game. The routine that teams are used to gets thrown out of whack. As a result, teams don’t play as well, or at least some bettors think this way.
Nothing tells the story better than the numbers. They are both right.
Diving into the numbers, teams coming off a bye have gone 916-87-27 (51.2%) since the 2005 season. There is somewhat of an edge. However, bettors looking to win CFB bets should not simply bet on every team after a bye.
Is there an advantage that CFB bettors can exploit? Is it something that will help to avoid these habits of the losing sports bettor?
Win CFB Bets – Ranked Teams After a Bye
Top 25 teams are typically the best teams in the country at a given point in a college football season. These are the schools with the best coaches, the best facilities, and the best players in the nation.
Teams like this are extremely capable of putting an extra week to prepare and recover to use. In fact, the numbers support this idea. Since 2005, AP Top 25 ranked teams coming off a bye week have gone 180-152-0 (54.2%) ATS. That is just as significant as betting against the public in certain situations.
One Step Further
Bettors looking to win CFB bets can actually take this ranked team idea one step further. Look for top 25 teams after a bye that are playing at home. Not having to go on the road increases the advantages these teams get from an extra week off.
The numbers support this as well. Ranked teams playing at home the week after a bye have covered the spread in 58.9 percent of their games since 2005. The average bettor can win CFB bets and make money on this strategy. It has been profitable in 10 of the last 13 seasons.
