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Smarter Bettor – Feature Sports Betting News
Navigating NCAA Football betting odds can get tricky. But we got your back. Key Points – Analyzing NCAA football betting odds can help the college football bettor improve his winning percentage. – There are a number of areas in which to look for favorable NCAA football betting odds. Need to Know – NCAA Football Betting Odds In terms of popularity, betting on college football games rivals that of the NFL. College football bettors can’t wait for a season to begin so they can start cranking out point spread and totals bets. Unlike baseball which lends itself to moneyline bets, college football is more of a point spread and totals sport. So, how do college football bettors succeed? Part of betting success in the sport comes from analyzing NCAA football betting odds. If you know what to look for, you can increase your chances of success. Here’s what you can do. But before we do get into it, there’s something else you can do. Pro handicapper win percentages are high enough that you don’t have to worry. They have your back if you’re too busy. Understand the Sport College football is not the NFL. There are 131 FBS programs right now. Teams typically carry around 100 players on their rosters and there is a huge difference between the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world and New Mexico State and Connecticut. NFL bettors do not see very many double-digit point spreads. In college football, bettors are not surprised when they see a point spread of over 20, 30, or even 40! There are vast differences in talent between the best teams in the country and those programs that simply aren’t as good. Whereas the worst team in the NFL could – and has – beat the best team in the league, the worst team in college football would repeatedly get smacked around by the best. Upsets do happen in college football, but there is not as much parity like there is in the NFL. Home Field Advantage & NCAA Football Betting Odds When analyzing NCAA football betting odds, one of the first things bettors may look at is which team is at home. Playing at home is a bigger deal in college football than it is at the NFL level. When you are talking about teenagers and early 20-year-olds having to travel to and screw up their routines, playing at home has its advantages. However, home field advantage is most often overvalued. Home field advantage is factored into NCAA football betting odds. Casual bettors love home teams and sportsbooks often shade lines toward them. The result is that the betting public often bets on overpriced home favorites. Smarter bettors know when to tail and fade the public. The reality is that roughly 59 percent of home teams win. Against the spread, it’s a completely different story. Since 2005, home college football teams have won against the spread just 48.8 percent of the time. That means a $100 bettor wagering on every home team to cover would have lost over $48K over that time period. The bottom line is to be careful when analyzing college football odds and home teams. The Thing about Road Underdogs If you simply bet on favorites all the time, your bankroll probably isn’t going to grow very much. You need to win just over 52 percent of the time (assuming -110 odds) just to break even. That’s why it pays to bet on strong college football underdogs from time to time. There are certain situations where betting the underdog makes a ton of sense. One of those situations is the short road underdog. By short, we are talking about an underdog that is getting four or fewer points (+4). The betting public, as we already know, loves home teams. The other thing the public likes is favorites. Combine the two – home favorites – and the public just gets giddy. What makes it even better is when a home favorite is laying four or fewer points (-4) at top offshore sportsbooks. That means a home favorite only has to win by five or more points. The public loves those types of home favorites. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Opr8EybfDY Road Dogs Upset Home Favorites 47% of the Time The reality is that road underdogs actually upset home favorites just over 47 percent of the time. Since 2005, road dogs are 532-598 (47.1%). Yes, that’s a losing record, but because of plus-money odds on the moneyline a bettor would actually be up well over 80 units. What’s even more eye-opening is that road underdogs actually win against the spread at an even higher rate. Since 2005, road underdogs are 600-508 ATS (54.2%). Betting college football road underdogs is a strategy worth considering when analyzing odds. The other situation where it pays to look at a road underdog is when there is a low total. Low totals favor underdogs for one simple reason. Fewer points makes it more difficult for a favorite to cover the spread. In games with a total of 50 or less since 2005, road underdogs have gone 1062-933 ATS (53.2%). If you take the total down to 45 or less, the ATS winning percentage goes up to 54.6%. When the road underdog with a total of 45 or less is facing a conference opponent, the ATS winning percentage goes even higher – 55.9%. Familiarity with the opponent favors the underdog. Watch the Schedule When Analyzing NCAA Football Betting Odds College teams play a 12-game regular season schedule. Teams can schedule games during the last week of August, which is commonly referred to as Week 0. The final week of the season is known as Week 15. Typically, the only game on the schedule is the annual Army-Navy rivalry. That means college teams have roughly 15 to 16 weeks to play 12 games. That means that teams will have an off week. One area where bettors can do some analyzing is on home favorites coming off a bye week. Teams get that extra week to get healthier. Members of a coaching staff are able to prepare better for an upcoming opponent. The results are something that bettors should keep an eye out for. Since 2005, home favorites after a bye week are 289-235 ATS (55.2%). When those home favorites are ranked in the AP Top 25, the numbers are even better. Ranked home favorites after an off week are 90-61 ATS (59.6%) beating the spread nearly 60 percent of the time. Keep an eye on the schedule and look for home favorites coming off a bye week.
Pro handicapper win percentages will help you choose the right one. Pro Handicapper Win Percentages The official definition for a box score at Wikipedia is “a chart used in baseball to present data about player achievement in a particular game.” Diehard MLB fans use the box score to keep tabs on their favorite players throughout the season. The same concept could easily be applied to professional sports handicappers. It\’s important to track pro handicapper win percentages. They sell sports pick packages based on their overall performance picking the games. Perhaps you are looking for a way to improve your overall return on investment betting on sports. The first step in the process is to find a pro handicapping service that meets your needs. Must Have Current Info Sports betting sites that feature a pro handicapping service will usually offer a profile page for each one of the handicappers they represent. The first thing you will want to check on that page is the last time it was updated. If the information is not current, move onto the next choice. Most pros release picks for active betting sports on a regular basis. The results of those picks should be updated every day and clearly visible within their profile. The best capper profiles break down their ongoing results by individual sport. This is a great way to research handicappers if you are interested in only betting on certain sports and sporting events. Pro Handicapper Win Percentages For Each Sport For example, if there is a big golf tournament this week you are looking to buy a selection package for. You should be able to find up-to-date information on that handicapper’s golf results for the season. Another important aspect is a pro handicapper’s highlight reel. This should include a recent track record by individual sports. They will most likely be presented in the following way: MLB 5-2 on 7-unit playsMLB Friday 8-unit winnerMLB 5 unit or higher plays 10-4 for plus $3,050MLB 4 out of 5 winning seasons The first thing to note in this box score is the 4 out of 5 winning seasons. This demonstrates both consistency and longevity in this handicapper’s selection service. Carefully check handicapper records A winning record on high-unit plays is another good sign. The best way to cover your investment in a pro selection package while also making plus money on your picks is through a solid winning percentage on high-unit plays. Longevity is Key to Success The only thing missing from this box score is this handicapper’s season record for MLB selections. Any handicapper can get hot in the short term. The plus money on the last 14 plays of 5 units or higher is a great run. However, you still need to know what the overall return on their MLB picks is for the season as a whole. You can start betting like the pros with the right capper. You’ll be the guy your friends call for a winner! A good strategy for finding the right pro for a particular sport is to compare and contrast results over any number of choices. This will give you a good feel for each pros performance as well as how they present those results. You still need to think of a handicapper’s profile page as a sales pitch. The information presented is a highlight reel. You must easily see your new pro handicapper win percentages. The good cappers will even find you the best offshore sportsbooks to get the best line. However, it is interesting to see how they decide to present that information. In this case, more is better. This demonstrates the depth of experience they may have in this field. Transparency is vital to finding the right pro handicappers and the best pick packages for your investment.
Betting like the pros is as easy as buying premium handicapper picks. Sports Betting Strategies There are basically three different betting strategies when it comes to wagering on sports. The first is going it completely on your own. Here, you get no outside help other than your existing sports handicapping skills. The results of this strategy are rather predictable. You never place a sports bet with the idea of losing that money. However, most recreational sports bettors tend to lose more money than they win. There is a reason why the sports betting industry brings in billions of dollars in revenue on a regular basis. The next strategy is turning to a professional sports capper for all of your weekly bets. Most pros are really good at what they do but everything comes at a cost. You need to justify the cost of buying selections against the average amount of the bets you place. A site like Game Advisers offers a variety of picks daily for just $129/month. Going Pro – Betting Like the Pros If you are a $100 per unit bettor, going with the pros could be a viable betting strategy. If you are wagering $10 a unit, the cost of any selection plan is going to cut rather deep into your profits. The third strategy is designed to improve the overall winning percentage of the bets you place. Premium handicapping services is not a selection package that tells you which team to bet on at a set number of units. However this service takes most of the guesswork and bias out of picking games on your own. Get on the right side of the action For a fraction of the cost involved with buying actual picks. You can subscribe to a monthly or yearly sports advisors service that provides an in-depth betting report for every single game. Including games played in the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. During the season, reports are made available for college football and basketball covering every nationally ranked team. Inherently Improve Your Skills Look at improving your own handicapping skills through the use of detailed, timely and accurate sports betting data. You will automatically improve the overall winning percentage on the bets you place. Hey baseball bettors! Check out value bets for MLB 5 inning lines. As part of these betting reports, you will also receive detailed information on how the public and the sharps are betting each game. This can be extremely helpful to gaining that all important edge against the books. Tracking both line movements and where the money is going lets you take advantage of opportunities ahead of time as opposed to pulling the trigger on a bet that is more of a guess than anything else. Built-in bias has a huge influence on anyone who bets on sports even if they consider themselves a pro. Reducing that bias with factual betting data wins more wagers. This data will help you eliminate bad bets. Betting Like the Pros By Staying on Top of Reports Timely and accurate injury reports will have a direct impact on the outcome of a game if a star player has to sit things out. Recent head-to-head betting trends paint a picture of familiarity between two teams. Past results do not guarantee future results. Yet, a higher level of familiarity does build a higher level of predictability into the overall handicapping process. A great example of expert handicapping services as opposed to pro selection packages is ScoresandStats.com/premium. Referred to as SAS Premium, this program is membership based at a monthly cost of just $9.99. Designed to transform the way you bet on sports, you can bet like the pros using the same insider information they rely on to make their picks. You can bet against the public or bet with the sharps on a regular basis. With SAS Premium, you can dramatically increase your overall return on investment at a fraction of the cost you would pay for one week of pro picks covering one major sport.
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Different Sides of the Sports Betting World
Bob Dylan said it back in the 60’s…“The times they are a changin’”. Well, the same can be said for sports betting in the year 2018. If you haven’t heard, back in May, the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting. With that in mind, let’s get more familiar with this huge industry and look at three different sides of the sports betting world.
According to Statista.com, the global gambling market, which also includes lotteries, casinos, poker and other gaming, grosses more than 400 billion US dollars per year. Of that $400B, sports betting makes up anywhere from 30-40% of it. The same site conducted a survey, and came up with the fact that almost 50% of people in the Unites States 18 years and older have placed a bet on a sporting event at least once in their life. So it is evident that sports betting is a HUGE business.
While you may know the basics of this global industry, what do you know about Pay Per Head services? How about pick services? What about if you are new to betting, but want to place a wager, do you know what to look for when choosing the right online sportsbook? Read on, and I will help educate you on these three topics.
You might ask, what the heck is a Pay Per Head service? Let me explain it for you. PPH is an online service for someone who takes bets, better known as a bookie, or an “agent” as they are called in the biz. This service will help an agent run their business in a coordinated manner, at the same time giving their clients a vast array of betting options.
Gone are the days when a bookie writes everything on paper and has to do his own accounting. A PPH service takes care of all that. The bookie will get the security, technology and software, including lines and odds without having to open up their own sportsbook, which obviously is a huge in devour.
The Pay Per Head comes into play because the agent is charged a set fee for every bettor that places a bet that week; they are charged a “per head” fee for the service.
There is a lot to know about these services, as there are a lot of them available, but I won’t go into the in’s and out’s and/or the pro’s and con’s in this article. However, a while back I wrote a piece titled, Taking Your Bookie Business Offshore | PPH Pros and Cons. Go take a look.
For one reason or another you may consider using a sports betting pick service. Bettors use these services to gain an edge, in turn putting more W’s in the win/loss column. You may choose to use these because you’re a beginner or because you’re sick of losing. Whatever the case, you have to be very careful when choosing one.
A pick service is a handicapper or a group of handicappers that sell their picks, and let me tell you, there are A LOT of them. I put them in the same category as a stockbroker, except they aid you in betting on a sporting event rather than providing information where you should put your money in the stock market.
Like stockbrokers, some of these guys are scammers. I went deeper into this when I wrote about how to find a trustworthy pick service, but to summarize, some handicappers don’t know their head from their a$$, while others will try to move a line to benefit themselves.
Some things to watch out for is a site that verifies their winning percentage, large marketing budgets and cost, but you can read more about those in the aforementioned article.
If you do want to start wagering on sports or simply want a different avenue to place bets, the first step is to find the right sportsbook for you. Like PPH and pick services, the options are a plenty. While most are legit, there are also a lot that are not, and you have to be very careful before sending money their way.
There is a lot of information to be found on this subject around the web, including multiple sportsbook review sites, but be aware that some of these sites are run by actual sportsbooks, and can have a biased opinion. For me, the best way to choose a sportsbook is to talk to people that have actually used them, and get first-hand information.
Of course, one of the most important things to consider when choosing a book is do they pay. We all want to get paid when we win, and when you struggle to get paid, it’s not something you want to be a part of.
A couple other considerations include the betting options available. For example, do they offer teasers, first and second half lines and live betting? Do they have an online casino and racebook? How about a great mobile interface? All these things must be considered. Like the other two topics, I also went in-depth on Things to Look For When Choosing an Online Sportsbook that you might want to take a look at.
So that does it for today. I hope this was a good introduction into a few different facets of the sports betting industry. There is a lot more to know and learn, and be sure to watch out for more interesting articles on these topics and more in the near future. Good luck with your bets!