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Smarter Bettor – Feature Sports Betting News
What is the best kept secret in sports betting? Key Points – Bettors can take advantage of a sports betting secret, if they can find it. – Bettors would love to know the secret to sports betting. The Best Kept Secret in Sports Betting What is not a secret in sports betting is that all bettors want to win money. Sure, betting on sporting events is fun, but deep down there is a desire to win and win big. The problem is that the system is designed for the average sports bettor to lose. If every sports bettor always won, sportsbooks would be out of business and sports betting as we know it probably wouldn’t exist. Wouldn’t it be great if bettors could simply make strong betting choices and guarantee a win? That would be the best kept secret in sports betting. Arbitrage Defined There is something called arbitrage in sports betting. To some, it may not be a secret at all, but for the majority of bettors out there it probably comes as a surprise. An arbitrage occurs when a bettor places multiple wagers on the same event to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome. Usually, it happens as a result of many sportsbooks providing various odds for the same event. Arbitrage does require bettors to have multiple betting accounts at a variety of sportsbooks. Doing so allows a bettor to use arbitrage as a type of hedging; however, the actual definition calls for bettors to place all of their arbitrage bets at once. The concept can best be understood through the use of examples. ICYMI: STARTING YOUR OWN PPH SPORTSBOOK Same Game, Different Odds This will happen from time to time. Two bookies are simultaneously giving different odds on a game. The arbitrage bettor will wager on both to ensure a profit or at the very least a breakeven. Consider an MLB game between the Pirates and Cardinals. You place a $100 on the Pirates at +110. If Pittsburgh wins, you win $110. It’s a strong bet especially after you found the value on the Pirates. At the same time, you see that both the Pirates and the Cubs are listed at -105 at a different sportsbook. You put $105 on the Cubs to win. No matter the outcome, you profit $5. That may not sound like much, but imagine doing that 100 times. Imagine doing it with larger wagers as well. The best arbitrage situations occur when lines on an event open. That is when bettors, sportsbooks, oddsmakers, etc. have the least amount of information available for an upcoming event. As it gets closer to game time, the lines tighten up and the arbitrage chances disappear. Bettors can go online and access tools that will help them locate arbitrage opportunities. They can be found. In the 2020 MLB season for example, Tampa Bay was +128 -1.5 on the run line against Baltimore which was +1.5 at -120. For every dollar wagered, a bettor could earn eight cents. Sports Betting Prop Secrets Since sportsbooks largely duplicate each other\’s lines, the aforementioned scenario doesn\’t happen as frequently in popular marketplaces like NFL or MLB games these days. However, it still applies to props because there isn\’t a free, central location where books may compare prop odds. Take the case of a recent NFL Draft. One sportsbook had CB Jeffrey Okudah\’s draft position listed as Over/Under 4.5, with the Over priced at +115. A second sportsbook had the same draft position – 4.5 – but listed the Under at +110. The smart bettor realized that he was guaranteed to win with $10 or $15 in this case by betting on either. As stated, finding arbitrage opportunities in the larger markets is harder, but bettors can find them in props markets. Taking Advantage of Line Movements This isn’t the typical arbitrage case, though one could argue that it is indeed an arbitrage bet. This strategy involves waiting for line movements. The problem, of course, is that lines don’t always move in your favor. However, if a line does shift to your advantage, you can place an arbitrage wager. Consider placing a $100 wager on the Cubs at their opening odds of +110. Following intense betting activity, Chicago drops to -115 and their opponent, the Cardinals, rise to +105. The smart bettor now wagers on the Cardinals at +105 and ensures a profit of $5 or $10 regardless of the outcome. To Arbitrage or Not to Arbitrage Should bettors use this strategy. Yes and no. For a few reasons, it will be difficult for the typical bettor to profit significantly from arbitrage. Profit margins are really low. Think about the Rays-Orioles example above. A bettor would need an extreme amount of capital to make the bet. He would also need a sportsbook with a high betting limit. Arbitrage opportunities are so hard to find these days. You won\’t notice significant pricing differences on point spreads or moneylines for the majority of major American sports. That’s because sportsbooks now shift lines on air. That means they alter odds depending on what other shops are doing rather than the action they are taking. Smart bettors can find arbitrage bets on things like MLB player props where the markets are less liquid, but the limits will probably be minimal and it would be challenging to produce a steady stream of winnings. Finally, books hate bettors that engage in this practice. When sportsbooks find out about a bettor engaging in arbitrage, they will typically restrict their betting or e
There are a number of betting mistakes to avoid. Key Points – There are key betting mistakes that must be avoided. – It takes time to learn how to avoid common betting mistakes. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Sports betting is not easy. If it was, everyone would be doing it. Well, it seems like everyone is doing it, but most aren’t winning and that’s the key. Sports bettors ultimately want to win more money. Sportsbooks want to stay in business. There is a fine line between winning and losing and the smart bettor knows that he will face ups and downs, winning streaks and losing streaks. That smart bettor also knows that he needs to stay disciplined and stay on course. To do so means avoiding a number of common betting mistakes. Here, we address those mistakes so that the average bettor can do what they set out to do – win more money. Managing the Bankroll & Unit Size Managing one’s money could be the most important aspect of sports betting. Too often, bettors want to chase losses and increase their unit size to make up for a bad loss. That is a betting mistake to avoid. It all starts with the budget. If $100 per week is your bankroll size, then that’s it. Don’t bet with the mortgage or car payment. Then, follow your rules on unit size. Typically, bettors that are more confident in a pick will wager up to 5 percent of their bankroll. Less confident picks might see a wager of 1 to 2 percent. You should have a rule that you never wager more than 5 percent of your bankroll. The key then is to have the discipline to stick to your money management strategy. This is where too many bettors make their first – and often biggest – mistake. Betting Mistakes – Too Many Bets Sports betting is not a “throw it against the wall and see what sticks” type of activity. The shotgun approach doesn’t work. Too many bettors want to place too many bets thinking that more is better. Betting on 10 or more games per day is likely too much. What ends up happening is that bettors will wager on sports that they really don’t know that much about. That’s a mistake. Keep your daily betting to a few well-researched plays. Find the bets you have the most confidence in and stick to those. You can’t do it all and it wouldn’t be smart to try. EDITOR\’S CHOICE: HOW TO MAKE STRONG BETTING CHOICES Unrealistic Expectations If you are having delusions of grandeur, stop right now. You aren’t going to have a winning percentage of 70 percent in the long run. You aren’t going to hit multiple parlays at +10000. It just isn’t happening. Remember, for a bettor to break even betting at standard odds (-110), the bettor must win 52.38 percent of all bets. Professional bettors will win 55 to 60 percent of the time. Any bettor that thinks they are going to have sustained success better than that is setting themselves up for failure. Dial it down and start slowly. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Reacting to Trends Oddsmakers know that the typical bettor has a bias towards events that have happened recently. A certain team has won ten in a row or a player has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three straight games. It’s the same on the other end too. Bettors will usually fade the team on a five-game losing streak. Smart bettors will see this in an opening line. Take a team like the Packers, a public favorite. Green Bay is coming off three straight wins and opens as a favorite in their next game. Instead of being favored at -7, oddsmakers know that the betting public will wager on Green Bay no matter what. As a result, oddsmakers will open the Packers at -7.5 or even -8. Just because a team is on a certain streak doesn’t mean you should automatically wager on them. Do the research and come up with a strong betting decision for the right reasons. Betting Mistakes – Shoddy Research There has to be a reason why you would take the Yankees -175 or bet on the Dolphins +2.5. Bettors need to do their research in order to make a strong betting decision. It’s not as simple as “Oh, I think they might win.” As mentioned before, start slowly and find your niche. Maybe you only bet on college football until you become more experienced. Plus, keep in mind that doing research takes time and it’s likely that your occupation is not professional bettor. At some point, you will be able to use advanced analytics and stats to your advantage. For now, stick to doing the research you know how to do. The Head Not the Heart “But, I love the Cowboys!” Those would be famous last words after a bettor’s entire bankroll was washed away on a bet that was based on emotion rather than logic. It is a huge mistake to bet with the heart instead of the head. Inexperienced bettors will too often bet with the heart. This is one of the easiest betting mistakes to avoid. You can’t simply bet on your favorite team just because they are your favorite. Bettors that win often will bet against the public on many occasions. The public favors winners, home teams, teams on streaks, teams with star players, historic franchises, and more. But, the betting public loses way too often. That’s why sportsbooks stay in business. Bettors betting their hearts keep sportsbooks in business. Smart bettors learn when it’s right to side with the sportsbook. Remember, they win more often than not. Bettors that can avoid these common betting mistakes will find themselves having success at some point. It won’t come easy. Anything worth it usually does take time. Stick to your sports betting plan and reap the benefits in the end.
How to make strong betting choices is the key to your success. Key Points – Making better betting choices comes down to a couple key points. – Knowing how to find value is a key in making strong betting choices. How to Make Strong Betting Choices Bettors of all experience levels usually have a common problem. With sportsbooks now full of betting options, bettors are having a difficult time choosing their bets. There are so many bets on the board now that it can be overwhelming at times. Just choosing a sport can be a chore in itself. There are the major sports like football, basketball, baseball, and hockey; but bettors can’t forget about sports like soccer, golf, and tennis. Add in thousands of bet types and the problem becomes even greater. With all these choices, how is the average bettor supposed to choose what to bet on? How can you avoid the trap of staring at your computer screen or smartphone trying to pick a bet? Strong betting choices start with knowing what to look for. Look for Value Not Winners Bettors that simply look for wins are more likely to end up in the red. More wins doesn’t always mean more to the bankroll. Chasing wins is not a strategy that a smart bettor should follow. Here’s why. Keep in mind that all bets do not pay out the same. Bettors can win tons of bets but still lose money. Bettors have to pay attention to the odds, which can help in finding value. The betting public loves favorites. While favorites tend to win a lot, betting on favorites all the time is a recipe for disaster. As an example, let’s make four bets all on big favorites. We put down $100 each on four favorites all given -500 odds to win. Chasing wins, you go 3-1 and are excited. Three of the four favorites won and, on paper, you look solid. Then, you check your wallet. That tells a different story. The winning bets paid out $20 each giving you $60. The problem is that one of the $100 bets lost meaning the net profit on these four wagers is minus-$40. Do that a couple times in a row and all of a sudden your bankroll is gone. BETTORS READ THIS >>> THE PHILOSOPHY OF SHARP BETTORS That’s why it makes more sense to find strong value bets instead of trying to pick winners and losers. How to Find Value What bettors must understand in order to find value bets is something called implied probability. The idea here is that bettors want to choose bets that will pay more than they should. To help grasp the concept, let’s look at an example. You have two teams – Team Red and Team Black. You believe Team Red has an 80 percent chance of winning. This correlates to Team Red’s odds of winning which are -400. A $100 bet on Red would pay out $25. Let’s say you log in to your sportsbook account and find that Team Red is listed at -200 to win. That correlates to an implied probability of 66.67 percent. You think Red has a better chance of winning than the sportsbook does. At -200 odds, this bet would pay out $50 to the winner. That’s more than you think it should. That is value and this is the type of scenario that you would look for to make smarter, more valuable bets. https://youtu.be/sCbepI5L5kw Make Strong Betting Choices on Underdogs Bettors can really find value on certain underdogs. This is especially true for MLB bettors. Betting repeatedly on heavy MLB favorites will not add to the bankroll like hitting a few well-placed value bets on underdogs. Let’s make four bets again, but this time we will place them on four underdogs all given +400 odds. When it’s all said and done, you only won on one of the bets. Compared to the guy betting the favorites, your 1-3 record doesn’t look all that hot. While the record isn’t great, your bankroll is doing just fine. You lost $300 on the three losing bets, but you won $400 on the winner. That means you profited $100. That is value and repeatedly finding it will not only make you more money, but it will make you a smarter bettor. Find Your Specialty The betting public loves to bet the major sports and there is plenty of value to be found there. What many bettors might not realize is the value to be found in betting on sports like golf, tennis, NASCAR, and more. Sportsbooks put more of their focus on the big revenue sports. Live betting is relatively new and sportsbooks are still working out the kinks. The odds and lines are tighter on more traditional bets whereas smart bettors can find tremendous odds when betting the winner of a given golf tournament. It’s common to find the favorite of a golf event listed between +300 and +800. Underdogs in these events come in at even more favorable odds. Don’t forget the less popular bets in various sports. The First Five Innings bet in MLB, for example, is a great bet when an elite pitcher is on the mound against a weaker team. Bettors can take the elite pitcher’s team to win on the First Five moneyline or cover the First Five spread, whichever bet offers more value. The NBA has its Race to 20 Points. It’s a game prop that provides value to bettors that know what to look for. You might have an NBA team that is not favored to win, but they score the most first-quarter points in the NBA. You find the team listed at plus-money in the Race to 20 Points. It’s just another example of a bet that offers value. Making strong betting choices comes down to things – finding value and doing the research. Finding quality bets takes time. Take your time, find value, find your niche, and reap the benefits.
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Different Sides of the Sports Betting World
Bob Dylan said it back in the 60’s…“The times they are a changin’”. Well, the same can be said for sports betting in the year 2018. If you haven’t heard, back in May, the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting. With that in mind, let’s get more familiar with this huge industry and look at three different sides of the sports betting world.
According to Statista.com, the global gambling market, which also includes lotteries, casinos, poker and other gaming, grosses more than 400 billion US dollars per year. Of that $400B, sports betting makes up anywhere from 30-40% of it. The same site conducted a survey, and came up with the fact that almost 50% of people in the Unites States 18 years and older have placed a bet on a sporting event at least once in their life. So it is evident that sports betting is a HUGE business.
While you may know the basics of this global industry, what do you know about Pay Per Head services? How about pick services? What about if you are new to betting, but want to place a wager, do you know what to look for when choosing the right online sportsbook? Read on, and I will help educate you on these three topics.
You might ask, what the heck is a Pay Per Head service? Let me explain it for you. PPH is an online service for someone who takes bets, better known as a bookie, or an “agent” as they are called in the biz. This service will help an agent run their business in a coordinated manner, at the same time giving their clients a vast array of betting options.
Gone are the days when a bookie writes everything on paper and has to do his own accounting. A PPH service takes care of all that. The bookie will get the security, technology and software, including lines and odds without having to open up their own sportsbook, which obviously is a huge in devour.
The Pay Per Head comes into play because the agent is charged a set fee for every bettor that places a bet that week; they are charged a “per head” fee for the service.
There is a lot to know about these services, as there are a lot of them available, but I won’t go into the in’s and out’s and/or the pro’s and con’s in this article. However, a while back I wrote a piece titled, Taking Your Bookie Business Offshore | PPH Pros and Cons. Go take a look.
For one reason or another you may consider using a sports betting pick service. Bettors use these services to gain an edge, in turn putting more W’s in the win/loss column. You may choose to use these because you’re a beginner or because you’re sick of losing. Whatever the case, you have to be very careful when choosing one.
A pick service is a handicapper or a group of handicappers that sell their picks, and let me tell you, there are A LOT of them. I put them in the same category as a stockbroker, except they aid you in betting on a sporting event rather than providing information where you should put your money in the stock market.
Like stockbrokers, some of these guys are scammers. I went deeper into this when I wrote about how to find a trustworthy pick service, but to summarize, some handicappers don’t know their head from their a$$, while others will try to move a line to benefit themselves.
Some things to watch out for is a site that verifies their winning percentage, large marketing budgets and cost, but you can read more about those in the aforementioned article.
If you do want to start wagering on sports or simply want a different avenue to place bets, the first step is to find the right sportsbook for you. Like PPH and pick services, the options are a plenty. While most are legit, there are also a lot that are not, and you have to be very careful before sending money their way.
There is a lot of information to be found on this subject around the web, including multiple sportsbook review sites, but be aware that some of these sites are run by actual sportsbooks, and can have a biased opinion. For me, the best way to choose a sportsbook is to talk to people that have actually used them, and get first-hand information.
Of course, one of the most important things to consider when choosing a book is do they pay. We all want to get paid when we win, and when you struggle to get paid, it’s not something you want to be a part of.
A couple other considerations include the betting options available. For example, do they offer teasers, first and second half lines and live betting? Do they have an online casino and racebook? How about a great mobile interface? All these things must be considered. Like the other two topics, I also went in-depth on Things to Look For When Choosing an Online Sportsbook that you might want to take a look at.
So that does it for today. I hope this was a good introduction into a few different facets of the sports betting industry. There is a lot more to know and learn, and be sure to watch out for more interesting articles on these topics and more in the near future. Good luck with your bets!