With six weeks of the NFL season in the books, there are definitely some NFL betting trends emerging. Whether it’s the league as a whole or individual teams, looking back can guide future bets.
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Any edge a bettor can gain is welcome when trying to win against the NFL oddsmaking juggernaut.
Over My Head
The biggest betting story of the first four weeks was the number of games that paid out on the over. The over/under bet is usually tough, but not to start the 2020 season. Through Week 4, there was a 12-game differential between games paying out the over versus the under bet.
That was reversed a bit in Week 5, with eight of 14 games going to the under. Still, through Week 5, the over has a 10-game advantage over the under. Scoring in the league is up, and the oddsmakers were a little late to the party.
The combination provided a good opportunity for over bettors. Week 6 is critical to determine if both league defenses and sportsbook operators have made the proper adjustments. If not, it could be uncharacteristically easy money if neither party gets better.
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Perfect All the Way Around
The Green Bay Packers are surprising fans, other teams and, more significantly, oddsmakers in 2020. Their NFL betting trends are quite strong. They are 4-0 and outscoring opponents by almost 13 points a game. They’re also undefeated against the spread, covering by an average of just under 11 a game.
The Packers are the only team still perfect against the spread, and they’re also 3-1 in the over. They’re on a roll, and that trend could point the way to some profitable wagers. Week 6 has Green Bay as a 1.5-point favorite at Tampa Bay with a 54.5 point over/under.
NFL Betting Trends
On the other end of the spectrum stand the New York Jets, who might be setting records for betting futility. They’re 0-5 on the field with an average loss margin of 17 points, and they’ve also failed to cover. Not only haven’t they covered, but they’ve come up short against the spread by an average of 11 points.
The Dallas Cowboys are having a rough season yet still find themselves leading the NFC East. Unfortunately for anyone wagering on America’s Team to beat the spread at some point, they’ve come up empty. Now without their starting quarterback, it could get even rougher for the Cowboys.
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Close But No Cigar
The Los Angeles Chargers have managed to play five one-possession games, losing four of them in dramatic fashion. They may be 1-4 on the field but are 4-1 against the spread by the thinnest of margins. Twice they covered by half a point, and in the game they didn’t cover, it was by a point.
Still Pursuing the 1973 Dolphins
Besides the Packers, there are three other teams who have yet to lose a game in the 2020 NFL season. The last team to complete a season with an undefeated record was the 1973 Miami Dolphins. Are you willing to bet that the Packers, Steelers, Titans or Seahawks can duplicate the feat?
