How to make strong betting choices is the key to your success.

Key Points

– Making better betting choices comes down to a couple key points.

– Knowing how to find value is a key in making strong betting choices.

How to Make Strong Betting Choices

Bettors of all experience levels usually have a common problem. With sportsbooks now full of betting options, bettors are having a difficult time choosing their bets. There are so many bets on the board now that it can be overwhelming at times.

Just choosing a sport can be a chore in itself. There are the major sports like football, basketball, baseball, and hockey; but bettors can’t forget about sports like soccer, golf, and tennis. 

Add in thousands of bet types and the problem becomes even greater. With all these choices, how is the average bettor supposed to choose what to bet on? How can you avoid the trap of staring at your computer screen or smartphone trying to pick a bet?

Strong betting choices start with knowing what to look for.

Look for Value Not Winners

Bettors that simply look for wins are more likely to end up in the red. More wins doesn’t always mean more to the bankroll. Chasing wins is not a strategy that a smart bettor should follow. Here’s why. 

Keep in mind that all bets do not pay out the same. Bettors can win tons of bets but still lose money. Bettors have to pay attention to the odds, which can help in finding value.

The betting public loves favorites. While favorites tend to win a lot, betting on favorites all the time is a recipe for disaster. As an example, let’s make four bets all on big favorites. We put down $100 each on four favorites all given -500 odds to win.

Chasing wins, you go 3-1 and are excited. Three of the four favorites won and, on paper, you look solid. Then, you check your wallet. That tells a different story.

The winning bets paid out $20 each giving you $60. The problem is that one of the $100 bets lost meaning the net profit on these four wagers is minus-$40. Do that a couple times in a row and all of a sudden your bankroll is gone.

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That’s why it makes more sense to find strong value bets instead of trying to pick winners and losers.

How to Find Value

What bettors must understand in order to find value bets is something called implied probability. The idea here is that bettors want to choose bets that will pay more than they should. To help grasp the concept, let’s look at an example.

You have two teams - Team Red and Team Black. You believe Team Red has an 80 percent chance of winning. This correlates to Team Red’s odds of winning which are -400. A $100 bet on Red would pay out $25.

Let’s say you log in to your sportsbook account and find that Team Red is listed at -200 to win. That correlates to an implied probability of 66.67 percent. You think Red has a better chance of winning than the sportsbook does. 

At -200 odds, this bet would pay out $50 to the winner. That’s more than you think it should. That is value and this is the type of scenario that you would look for to make smarter, more valuable bets.


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Make Strong Betting Choices on Underdogs

Bettors can really find value on certain underdogs. This is especially true for MLB bettors. Betting repeatedly on heavy MLB favorites will not add to the bankroll like hitting a few well-placed value bets on underdogs. 

Let’s make four bets again, but this time we will place them on four underdogs all given +400 odds. When it’s all said and done, you only won on one of the bets. Compared to the guy betting the favorites, your 1-3 record doesn’t look all that hot. 

While the record isn’t great, your bankroll is doing just fine. You lost $300 on the three losing bets, but you won $400 on the winner. That means you profited $100. That is value and repeatedly finding it will not only make you more money, but it will make you a smarter bettor.

Find Your Specialty

The betting public loves to bet the major sports and there is plenty of value to be found there. What many bettors might not realize is the value to be found in betting on sports like golf, tennis, NASCAR, and more. 

Sportsbooks put more of their focus on the big revenue sports. Live betting is relatively new and sportsbooks are still working out the kinks. The odds and lines are tighter on more traditional bets whereas smart bettors can find tremendous odds when betting the winner of a given golf tournament. 

It’s common to find the favorite of a golf event listed between +300 and +800. Underdogs in these events come in at even more favorable odds. 

Don’t forget the less popular bets in various sports. The First Five Innings bet in MLB, for example, is a great bet when an elite pitcher is on the mound against a weaker team. Bettors can take the elite pitcher’s team to win on the First Five moneyline or cover the First Five spread, whichever bet offers more value.

The NBA has its Race to 20 Points. It’s a game prop that provides value to bettors that know what to look for. 

You might have an NBA team that is not favored to win, but they score the most first-quarter points in the NBA. You find the team listed at plus-money in the Race to 20 Points. It’s just another example of a bet that offers value.

Making strong betting choices comes down to things - finding value and doing the research. Finding quality bets takes time. Take your time, find value, find your niche, and reap the benefits.

You should embrace betting against the public. Key Points – The betting public loves winners, favorites, and high-scoring games. – The betting public loses more often than it wins. Why You Should Embrace Betting Against the Public Betting against the public is betting against what most people expect. Another way to say it is “fading the public.” People vote with their money, and the outcome with the highest support is what the betting public expects. When a bet is one-sided, meaning most people are betting on one event, betting on the opposing outcome may be profitable. The idea behind this sports betting technique is that the public is usually wrong. If so, more sports bettors would be successful and more sportsbooks would be out of business. Whichever side of the bet gets the greatest action symbolizes public opinion. Statistically, public perception is wrong. The philosophy of sharp bettors is more often right. Therefore, bettors should embrace betting against the public. Identify Moving Lines Sportsbooks want to take in equal action on both sides of a bet to reduce risk. When the public bets too much on one side, the sportsbook adjusts the lines and odds to favor the other. These moving odds indicate public action. This is a great opportunity to fade the public especially since the sportsbook is giving you better odds on the other side of the bet. ICYMI: GUIDE TO THE MARTINGALE BETTING SYSTEM Factors that Influence the Public Popular opinion is formed by many causes, not all of which are facts. If you can find areas where people\'s opinions are influenced by other circumstances, it may make sense to bet against the public. Media hype is one such factor. The media’s reports might sway one outcome over another. The dominant media narrative influences people quickly, and public opinion snowballs. More people bet on the more popular teams. Casual bettors rely more on reputation rather than the probability that they might win. The more popular a team is, the more the public will back it. Playing at home is a crucial element in football, hockey, and basketball. It is also overvalued by the betting public. Bettors should always check a team’s short-term history of playing at home. It may not be as big of an advantage as the public thinks.  Star players are another influence for the public. LeBron James is often the sole reason why bettors will back the Los Angeles Lakers. Star players do influence the outcome of a game, but their impact might be exaggerated. Betting Against the Public - Psychology It’s basic human psychology. The betting public loves winners. They love favorites and they love points. In terms of game totals, that means the betting public prefers to bet the Over. Even if you think the public is getting it right on a game’s outcome, you can still fade the public on the game total.  Consider the number of times that an underdog has pulled the upset in a major event. Eighteen underdogs, for example, have won the Super Bowl. Every year in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, underdogs pull an average of a dozen upsets. These situations make it worth considering fading the public. Here are a few examples of betting against the public. Bet the Underdog to Win Start simply. The public is all over the New York Yankees in a game against Toronto. Casual bettors haven’t really followed the Yankees, but they know they lead their division and are one of the best teams in MLB. Add in that the Yankees are playing at home. In games between division rivals like this, underdogs have an advantage because of the number of times - 19 - they play the other team. That advantage is even more magnified when the underdog is on the road. Remember, the public tends to overvalue home field advantage. In MLB, underdogs win straight up 44 percent of the time. Road divisional underdogs win at a slightly higher clip. Betting against the public in these situations is one way to win more MLB bets. Betting Against the Public - Point Spread In the NFL, the most popular bet is against the point spread. Again, the public tends to favor popular teams and star players. Home field is often overvalued and sportsbooks actually shade their lines to the public. Your top NFL picks may be those that go against the public’s choices. Over the past few years, teams like the Chiefs, Packers, and Buccaneers have been popular with the betting public. Each team has a popular quarterback and each team has had great success over the past few seasons. Let’s say the Chiefs are favored over a less popular team like the Bears. The line is set at 7.5. Chicago is playing well on the road and their defense has been outstanding. The Bears +7.5 covers the most common key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. This is a great spot to bet against the public since the Bears can lose by a touchdown and you can still win your bet. What is interesting in the NFL is that in the previous four straight seasons underdogs have covered the spread more often than favorites. Last season, underdogs won outright in 37 percent of all regular season games. Why You Should Embrace Betting Against the Public Totals Betting The psychology of sports betting makes totals bets a target in low-scoring sports like hockey and soccer. Low-scoring games are rarely bet on. The public prefers games with high scores. Consider a World Cup final between Portugal and Argentina. Media attention on a handful of the world’s best players will likely lead to high expectations for goals. People are excited for the World Cup final.  The public wagers on the Over, expecting a high-scoring match. More money is brought in on the Over. Sportsbooks adjust and now the smart bettor can get great odds on the Under. Keep in mind that World Cup finals are often low-scoring matches. The same logic applies to totals betting in other sports. When public opinion favors a high amount of goals or points, consider the Under. Betting against the public should be part of any smart bettor’s strategy. The public loses way too often. That’s why sportsbooks are still in business. Being on the side of the house is where you want to be.

Your guide to the Martingale betting system. Key Points – The Martingale betting system has been around for years. – There are a few different versions of the Martingale betting system. Guide to the Martingale Betting System One thing has been true in sports betting since the beginning of time. Bettors are constantly searching for ways to outsmart the system and win big.  The Martingale betting system has been around for a while and many bettors are familiar with it. It’s a tactic or method of betting that, on the surface, looks to promise quick and easy profits. The big question, of course, is if it really works.  Here, we explain the Marginale system and whether or not you might consider adding it to your betting tool box. What Exactly Is the Martingale Betting System? The 18th century saw the invention of the Martingale system of betting. Although it wasn\'t intended to be a gambling strategy at first, it quickly became well-known among bettors. The simplicity of this approach is one of the factors that contributed to its popularity. Over the years, it’s entirely possible that many early bettors were using the system but didn’t know it. The system uses a pretty basic mathematical strategy. In its easiest terms, the Martingale method recommends doubling your wager after each loss. According to the premise, you will make up your losses in subsequent rounds. In games with equal chances - meaning a 50/50 chance to win - this tactic works well. Any contest where the bettor has an equal chance on both sides will work for the Martingale betting system.. These games have odds of +200, which indicates that a $1 wager will result in a $2 payout. Think of roulette or a simple coin flip. In roulette, each round can produce red or black. Each coin flip can result in heads or tails. In choosing what to bet, these types of wagers work best. How It Works The gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work here. This is when a gambler attempts to predict the outcome of the next round based on all of the prior rounds.  The Martingale betting system uses probability and simple algebra to avoid the gambler’s fallacy. It is founded on the idea that if you constantly have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing, neither outcome is possible. In other words, you can’t always win and you can’t always lose. Therefore, all you have to do to win is double the amount of your previous wager. If you wager $20 and lose, you place a $40 wager in the subsequent round. Just keep placing bets using this strategy until you win back your losses plus a profit! It\'s recommended that you go back to your initial wager (in this case, $20) after you\'ve won your money and then repeat the technique. Of course, you also need to consider your own financial situation and know when to quit. Want to know a secret? READ THIS: THE BEST KEPT SECRET IN SPORTS BETTING Traditional Martingale Betting System There are three distinct versions of the Martingale betting strategy, each of which operates slightly differently.  The straightforward tactic we previously stated is called the Classic Martingale. Simply double your wager when you lose. When you win a round, simply go back to your previous wager and begin again.Here is an illustration of a situation in which you could gamble with a 50% probability of winning: In the example, the first number is the wager. Then, the result is given and finally, the profit. Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $20; loss: $30Round 3: $40; loss:-$70Round 4: $80; victory: $10Round 5: $10; loss; $0Round 6: $20; victory: $20Round 7: $10; victory: $30 Even though you only won slightly more than half the rounds, as you can see in this example, you still made a profit of $30. As long as you stick to the Martingale approach, you\'ll still turn a profit even if you have a really bad day.  The Grand Strategy The Grand Martingale system is similar to the traditional one with one big difference. When you lose a bet, double it and add $1. Here\'s how this version works using a similar example like the one above. Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $21; loss: -$31Round 3: $43; victory: $12.Round 4: $10; victory: $22Round 5: $10; Loss: $12.Round 6: $21; loss: -$9Round 7: $42; victory: $33 Despite being riskier, it offers a marginally larger profit potential than the Classic Martingale. You will, however, reach the table restrictions faster, which means you risk wasting your cash without having an opportunity to recoup it. Keep in mind you may reach the betting limit when using the Martingale betting system. You may reach it before you have a chance to recoup your losses. Be careful and avoid these wagering mistakes. Guide to the Martingale Betting System The Paroli Method The Martingale methods we previously stated are straightforward and successful, however the Paroli System differs slightly. According to this tactic, it\'s best to raise the stakes while you\'re on a winning streak because wins and losses frequently occur in streaks. Here\'s what you should do: double your wager when you win. Once you place the third consecutive winning wager, stop doubling it. When you lose, start over with your original wager. Here\'s an illustration: Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $10; loss: $20Round 3: $10; loss: $30Round 4: $10; win; minus $20.Round 5: $20; victory: $0.Round 6: $40; victory: $40Round 7: $80; victory: $120Round 8: $80; victory: $200Round 9: $80; defeat; $120Round 10: $10; loss; $110 You still generated a profit of $110 despite only winning half the rounds, as you can see in this illustration. This is why many gamblers favor the streak-dependent Martingale over other systems. Essentially, you\'re only wagering with money that you won because you only raise the stakes when you\'re winning. Gamblers may find this to be much more reasonable. Pros and Cons of this Strategy On the plus side, the Martingale technique is exceedingly straightforward and simple to follow. It works well if you have a huge bankroll because it can be difficult to lose because there is always a chance of winning money again. Regardless of betting experience, anyone can employ the Martingale system.  Do sharps use this strategy? Learn more about the philosophy of sharp bettors. On the negative side, the application of this system is restricted because it only functions when there are only two possible outcomes. Long-term wagers are not recommended since you risk accumulating too many losses. If your bankroll is minimal, you risk going bankrupt because it will be difficult to make up lost money. You can\'t utilize this approach \"forever\" because most casino games have limits on how much money bettors can win. Given these benefits and drawbacks, it\'s crucial to use caution when applying the Martingale approach.

What is the best kept secret in sports betting? Key Points – Bettors can take advantage of a sports betting secret, if they can find it. – Bettors would love to know the secret to sports betting. The Best Kept Secret in Sports Betting What is not a secret in sports betting is that all bettors want to win money. Sure, betting on sporting events is fun, but deep down there is a desire to win and win big.  The problem is that the system is designed for the average sports bettor to lose. If every sports bettor always won, sportsbooks would be out of business and sports betting as we know it probably wouldn’t exist. Wouldn’t it be great if bettors could simply make strong betting choices and guarantee a win? That would be the best kept secret in sports betting. Arbitrage Defined There is something called arbitrage in sports betting. To some, it may not be a secret at all, but for the majority of bettors out there it probably comes as a surprise. An arbitrage occurs when a bettor places multiple wagers on the same event to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome. Usually, it happens as a result of many sportsbooks providing various odds for the same event. Arbitrage does require bettors to have multiple betting accounts at a variety of sportsbooks. Doing so allows a bettor to use arbitrage as a type of hedging; however, the actual definition calls for bettors to place all of their arbitrage bets at once. The concept can best be understood through the use of examples. ICYMI: STARTING YOUR OWN PPH SPORTSBOOK Same Game, Different Odds This will happen from time to time. Two bookies are simultaneously giving different odds on a game. The arbitrage bettor will wager on both to ensure a profit or at the very least a breakeven.  Consider an MLB game between the Pirates and Cardinals. You place a $100 on the Pirates at +110. If Pittsburgh wins, you win $110. It’s a strong bet especially after you found the value on the Pirates. At the same time, you see that both the Pirates and the Cubs are listed at -105 at a different sportsbook. You put $105 on the Cubs to win. No matter the outcome, you profit $5. That may not sound like much, but imagine doing that 100 times. Imagine doing it with larger wagers as well. The best arbitrage situations occur when lines on an event open. That is when bettors, sportsbooks, oddsmakers, etc. have the least amount of information available for an upcoming event. As it gets closer to game time, the lines tighten up and the arbitrage chances disappear. Bettors can go online and access tools that will help them locate arbitrage opportunities. They can be found. In the 2020 MLB season for example, Tampa Bay was +128 -1.5 on the run line against Baltimore which was +1.5 at -120. For every dollar wagered, a bettor could earn eight cents. Sports Betting Prop Secrets Since sportsbooks largely duplicate each other\'s lines, the aforementioned scenario doesn\'t happen as frequently in popular marketplaces like NFL or MLB games these days. However, it still applies to props because there isn\'t a free, central location where books may compare prop odds. Take the case of a recent NFL Draft. One sportsbook had CB Jeffrey Okudah\'s draft position listed as Over/Under 4.5, with the Over priced at +115. A second sportsbook had the same draft position - 4.5 - but listed the Under at +110.  The smart bettor realized that he was guaranteed to win with $10 or $15 in this case by betting on either. As stated, finding arbitrage opportunities in the larger markets is harder, but bettors can find them in props markets. Taking Advantage of Line Movements This isn’t the typical arbitrage case, though one could argue that it is indeed an arbitrage bet. This strategy involves waiting for line movements. The problem, of course, is that lines don’t always move in your favor. However, if a line does shift to your advantage, you can place an arbitrage wager. Consider placing a $100 wager on the Cubs at their opening odds of +110. Following intense betting activity, Chicago drops to -115 and their opponent, the Cardinals, rise to +105. The smart bettor now wagers on the Cardinals at +105 and ensures a profit of $5 or $10 regardless of the outcome. To Arbitrage or Not to Arbitrage Should bettors use this strategy. Yes and no. For a few reasons, it will be difficult for the typical bettor to profit significantly from arbitrage. Profit margins are really low. Think about the Rays-Orioles example above. A bettor would need an extreme amount of capital to make the bet. He would also need a sportsbook with a high betting limit. Arbitrage opportunities are so hard to find these days. You won\'t notice significant pricing differences on point spreads or moneylines for the majority of major American sports. That’s because sportsbooks now shift lines on air. That means they alter odds depending on what other shops are doing rather than the action they are taking. Smart bettors can find arbitrage bets on things like MLB player props where the markets are less liquid, but the limits will probably be minimal and it would be challenging to produce a steady stream of winnings. Finally, books hate bettors that engage in this practice.  When sportsbooks find out about a bettor engaging in arbitrage, they will typically restrict their betting or e

There are a number of betting mistakes to avoid. Key Points – There are key betting mistakes that must be avoided. – It takes time to learn how to avoid common betting mistakes. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Sports betting is not easy. If it was, everyone would be doing it. Well, it seems like everyone is doing it, but most aren’t winning and that’s the key.  Sports bettors ultimately want to win more money. Sportsbooks want to stay in business. There is a fine line between winning and losing and the smart bettor knows that he will face ups and downs, winning streaks and losing streaks.  That smart bettor also knows that he needs to stay disciplined and stay on course. To do so means avoiding a number of common betting mistakes. Here, we address those mistakes so that the average bettor can do what they set out to do - win more money. Managing the Bankroll & Unit Size Managing one’s money could be the most important aspect of sports betting. Too often, bettors want to chase losses and increase their unit size to make up for a bad loss. That is a betting mistake to avoid. It all starts with the budget. If $100 per week is your bankroll size, then that’s it. Don’t bet with the mortgage or car payment. Then, follow your rules on unit size. Typically, bettors that are more confident in a pick will wager up to 5 percent of their bankroll. Less confident picks might see a wager of 1 to 2 percent.  You should have a rule that you never wager more than 5 percent of your bankroll. The key then is to have the discipline to stick to your money management strategy. This is where too many bettors make their first - and often biggest - mistake. Betting Mistakes - Too Many Bets Sports betting is not a “throw it against the wall and see what sticks” type of activity. The shotgun approach doesn’t work.  Too many bettors want to place too many bets thinking that more is better. Betting on 10 or more games per day is likely too much. What ends up happening is that bettors will wager on sports that they really don’t know that much about. That’s a mistake. Keep your daily betting to a few well-researched plays. Find the bets you have the most confidence in and stick to those. You can’t do it all and it wouldn’t be smart to try. EDITOR\'S CHOICE: HOW TO MAKE STRONG BETTING CHOICES Unrealistic Expectations If you are having delusions of grandeur, stop right now. You aren’t going to have a winning percentage of 70 percent in the long run. You aren’t going to hit multiple parlays at +10000. It just isn’t happening. Remember, for a bettor to break even betting at standard odds (-110), the bettor must win 52.38 percent of all bets. Professional bettors will win 55 to 60 percent of the time.  Any bettor that thinks they are going to have sustained success better than that is setting themselves up for failure. Dial it down and start slowly. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Reacting to Trends Oddsmakers know that the typical bettor has a bias towards events that have happened recently. A certain team has won ten in a row or a player has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three straight games.  It’s the same on the other end too. Bettors will usually fade the team on a five-game losing streak. Smart bettors will see this in an opening line. Take a team like the Packers, a public favorite.  Green Bay is coming off three straight wins and opens as a favorite in their next game. Instead of being favored at -7, oddsmakers know that the betting public will wager on Green Bay no matter what. As a result, oddsmakers will open the Packers at -7.5 or even -8. Just because a team is on a certain streak doesn’t mean you should automatically wager on them. Do the research and come up with a strong betting decision for the right reasons. Betting Mistakes - Shoddy Research There has to be a reason why you would take the Yankees -175 or bet on the Dolphins +2.5. Bettors need to do their research in order to make a strong betting decision. It’s not as simple as “Oh, I think they might win.”  As mentioned before, start slowly and find your niche. Maybe you only bet on college football until you become more experienced. Plus, keep in mind that doing research takes time and it’s likely that your occupation is not professional bettor.  At some point, you will be able to use advanced analytics and stats to your advantage. For now, stick to doing the research you know how to do. The Head Not the Heart “But, I love the Cowboys!” Those would be famous last words after a bettor’s entire bankroll was washed away on a bet that was based on emotion rather than logic. It is a huge mistake to bet with the heart instead of the head.  Inexperienced bettors will too often bet with the heart. This is one of the easiest betting mistakes to avoid. You can’t simply bet on your favorite team just because they are your favorite.  Bettors that win often will bet against the public on many occasions. The public favors winners, home teams, teams on streaks, teams with star players, historic franchises, and more. But, the betting public loses way too often. That’s why sportsbooks stay in business. Bettors betting their hearts keep sportsbooks in business. Smart bettors learn when it’s right to side with the sportsbook. Remember, they win more often than not. Bettors that can avoid these common betting mistakes will find themselves having success at some point. It won’t come easy. Anything worth it usually does take time. Stick to your sports betting plan and reap the benefits in the end.

SmarterBettor is the go-to site for your top NFL picks. Key Points – Bettors can use SmarterBettor for their top NFL picks. – Understanding the various NFL bets is a key to success. SmarterBettor for Your Top NFL Picks You know and understand the odds of the NFL picks. You know and understand the favorites and underdogs. What you do not know and understand are all the intricacies of the matchup at hand. SmarterBettor has the facts and figures that go into the game. A strong defensive team will carry the UNDER when it goes up against an average offensive.Injuries to key players can have weaknesses in their performances and the head coach can pull the starters out went extending the big lead. All this can add up to a blown cover on the point spread or total line.  This instructor has a notebook full of the information you will want to have in your books. NFL success breaks down to the finer details of the game. Understanding the particulars of the game at hand is the edge bettors have over the sportsbooks.  ICYMI: HOW TO MAKE STRONG BETTING CHOICES SmarterBettor Guide to Winning Big The point spread and the total line are the preliminary steps needed to bet any NFL game. The money line odds can factor in as well. All these numbers have a purpose in determining a strategy or plan. SmarterBettor has a better way to build on these plans. The touchdown is six points and a success kick after the scoring is one point. The NFL has an option to go with two points after the score. A special play is called using a pass or a run from the two-yard line. The field goal is worth three points. The defense and special teams can also score points in a safety.    All of these numbers add up to the way the NFL puts points on the board. SmarterBettor can determine who and what are the proper plans to winning big. The average Joe to the professional handicapper can see how this adds up to a smart idea.  A  Comprehensive Gameplan for Your Top NFL Picks When tackling the point spread, total line and money line odds in the particular NFL game make you aware of favorites and underdogs. SmarterBettor fans willing to bet on the game also know key numbers in the matchups. If the margin of difference ends up three, six or seven points, you should know that SmarterBettor has a realistic probability of taking of side with a half-point in its favor. You also should know that SmarterBettor is the side with certain facts and figure to prove its point. The SmarterBettor NFL game is a mix of science and art rolled in to one. The one thing in the common is the timely sports betting news all in one place.        

How to make strong betting choices is the key to your success. Key Points – Making better betting choices comes down to a couple key points. – Knowing how to find value is a key in making strong betting choices. How to Make Strong Betting Choices Bettors of all experience levels usually have a common problem. With sportsbooks now full of betting options, bettors are having a difficult time choosing their bets. There are so many bets on the board now that it can be overwhelming at times. Just choosing a sport can be a chore in itself. There are the major sports like football, basketball, baseball, and hockey; but bettors can’t forget about sports like soccer, golf, and tennis.  Add in thousands of bet types and the problem becomes even greater. With all these choices, how is the average bettor supposed to choose what to bet on? How can you avoid the trap of staring at your computer screen or smartphone trying to pick a bet? Strong betting choices start with knowing what to look for. Look for Value Not Winners Bettors that simply look for wins are more likely to end up in the red. More wins doesn’t always mean more to the bankroll. Chasing wins is not a strategy that a smart bettor should follow. Here’s why.  Keep in mind that all bets do not pay out the same. Bettors can win tons of bets but still lose money. Bettors have to pay attention to the odds, which can help in finding value. The betting public loves favorites. While favorites tend to win a lot, betting on favorites all the time is a recipe for disaster. As an example, let’s make four bets all on big favorites. We put down $100 each on four favorites all given -500 odds to win. Chasing wins, you go 3-1 and are excited. Three of the four favorites won and, on paper, you look solid. Then, you check your wallet. That tells a different story. The winning bets paid out $20 each giving you $60. The problem is that one of the $100 bets lost meaning the net profit on these four wagers is minus-$40. Do that a couple times in a row and all of a sudden your bankroll is gone. BETTORS READ THIS >>> THE PHILOSOPHY OF SHARP BETTORS That’s why it makes more sense to find strong value bets instead of trying to pick winners and losers. How to Find Value What bettors must understand in order to find value bets is something called implied probability. The idea here is that bettors want to choose bets that will pay more than they should. To help grasp the concept, let’s look at an example. You have two teams - Team Red and Team Black. You believe Team Red has an 80 percent chance of winning. This correlates to Team Red’s odds of winning which are -400. A $100 bet on Red would pay out $25. Let’s say you log in to your sportsbook account and find that Team Red is listed at -200 to win. That correlates to an implied probability of 66.67 percent. You think Red has a better chance of winning than the sportsbook does.  At -200 odds, this bet would pay out $50 to the winner. That’s more than you think it should. That is value and this is the type of scenario that you would look for to make smarter, more valuable bets. https://youtu.be/sCbepI5L5kw Make Strong Betting Choices on Underdogs Bettors can really find value on certain underdogs. This is especially true for MLB bettors. Betting repeatedly on heavy MLB favorites will not add to the bankroll like hitting a few well-placed value bets on underdogs.  Let’s make four bets again, but this time we will place them on four underdogs all given +400 odds. When it’s all said and done, you only won on one of the bets. Compared to the guy betting the favorites, your 1-3 record doesn’t look all that hot.  While the record isn’t great, your bankroll is doing just fine. You lost $300 on the three losing bets, but you won $400 on the winner. That means you profited $100. That is value and repeatedly finding it will not only make you more money, but it will make you a smarter bettor. Find Your Specialty The betting public loves to bet the major sports and there is plenty of value to be found there. What many bettors might not realize is the value to be found in betting on sports like golf, tennis, NASCAR, and more.  Sportsbooks put more of their focus on the big revenue sports. Live betting is relatively new and sportsbooks are still working out the kinks. The odds and lines are tighter on more traditional bets whereas smart bettors can find tremendous odds when betting the winner of a given golf tournament.  It’s common to find the favorite of a golf event listed between +300 and +800. Underdogs in these events come in at even more favorable odds.  Don’t forget the less popular bets in various sports. The First Five Innings bet in MLB, for example, is a great bet when an elite pitcher is on the mound against a weaker team. Bettors can take the elite pitcher’s team to win on the First Five moneyline or cover the First Five spread, whichever bet offers more value. The NBA has its Race to 20 Points. It’s a game prop that provides value to bettors that know what to look for.  You might have an NBA team that is not favored to win, but they score the most first-quarter points in the NBA. You find the team listed at plus-money in the Race to 20 Points. It’s just another example of a bet that offers value. Making strong betting choices comes down to things - finding value and doing the research. Finding quality bets takes time. Take your time, find value, find your niche, and reap the benefits.

The philosophy of sharp bettors impacts your return on investment. Key Points – Sharp bettors are those who bet professionally. – Learning how to spot sharp moves can only help a bettor.  So, not everyone is equally skilled at sports betting. No kidding, right?  But, there are a number of highly skilled sports bettors out there that do it not for fun, but as a means of income. They are professional sports bettors, also known as sharps. If you’re not a sharp, you’re something else. We will define that as well as look at how sharp bettors operate, how to identify sharps, and why that might be important. It all starts with the difference between a sharp and a square. Sharps vs. Squares If you are not a sharp bettor, then you are a square. The Joe Average bettor is a square. You may see the following terms in reference to square bettors: recreational bettors, casual bettors, the betting public.  Square bettors make up the majority of sports bettors. They are in it for the fun of it. Betting on sporting events is a form of entertainment. Squares typically bet smaller amounts and bet mostly on their gut instinct, emotion, and bias. Most square bettors focus on big games, ones that are televised for example. The betting public almost always backs favorites, home teams, popular teams, and teams with more star players. Squares want to believe they are backing the “better” team. If they are lucky, the Joe Average square bettor has a winning percentage right around 50%. What Makes a Sharp Bettor? A sharp bettor, commonly referred to as a wiseguy - think Robert DeNiro’s character in the movie Casino. A sharp is a veteran sports gambler who has not just years of experience, but decades of betting experience. They are smarter bettors and you may be able to find some via the internet. Unlike squares, the philosophy of a sharp bettor is to bet when they find value. Teams and players do not matter. These bets are driven by data, analysis, and years of experience. A sharp bettor will only place a wager when there is a perceived edge against the sportsbook. Otherwise, they don’t bet. These professional bettors are extremely disciplined and they will place bets that make squares scratch their heads. While the public is busy betting on the Yankees, Lakers, and Chiefs; wiseguys are searching anywhere for value. One week, it might be the Houston Texans in the NFL or the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB. If they don’t find value, sharps simply walk away.  Many professional bettors have their own power ratings system or some sort of mathematical model that they use to develop their own odds on a game. They will compare their numbers with the odds posted at sportsbooks. When they see a discrepancy, they jump on it right away. Another big difference between squares and sharps is that professional bettors tend to wager large amounts on games. While the average bettor might lay down a $20 bill on a game, a sharp might wager $5,000 on the same one.  Sharps will always get the best number possible. Square bettors tend to use one sportsbook. Sharps will get the best price available and doing so makes a difference in their bottom line. Speaking of the bottom line, it’s not just about wins and losses for the pro bettor. Sharps judge themselves on how often they beat the closing line.  MUST READ: ALL YOUR SPORTS BETTING INFO IN ONE PLACE Spotting Sharp Bettors\' Moves If you are thinking about following what the sharps do, you’re probably on the right track. I mean, doing what a professional bettor does would make sense. The issue is how to identify when sharps are betting. One of the easiest ways to spot sharp moves is by comparing the amount of bets to the amount of money wagered. Remember, Joe Public Bettor is busy putting down a 20-spot on a game he likes. It takes a lot of $20s to make up for a $5,000 bet.  Professional bettors also understand the difference between betting on the NFL as compared to college football. The average bettor should know these differences if they want to be successful. Keep in mind, professional bettors are just that - professionals. They are in it to make money. They aren’t wagering $20 a game. With that in mind, you can spot a sharp move when you compare the number of tickets (or bets) to the percentage of money on a certain side of a bet. Here’s an example. Illinois is playing Michigan in a Big Ten college football game. The Wolverines are commanding 75 percent of the tickets. Only 25 percent have bet on Illinois.  The interesting thing - and the thing that indicates sharp movement - is that 55 percent of the money is on Illinois. That is a pretty strong indication that sharps are betting on the underdog Illini. Bettors that can spot this movement can jump on for the ride.  The Steam Move The average bettor will have a hard time spotting a steam move, but it is possible. The steam move results in a sudden, drastic, uniform line move across the entire betting marketplace. It is the result of multiple sportsbooks taking sharp bettors’ action all at once. A professional bettor might make several $20,000 bets, for example, at various sportsbooks. Some of them are likely to be offshore. The average bettor would need the help of a betting service to identify the steam move, but again, if identified, bettors could follow the sharps. The Philosophy of Sharp Bettors - Follow or Not? With all this talk of sharp bettors, the question then is should the average bettor follow the sharps? The easy answer is yes, of course. The only problem is timing. Sharp action will result in line moves. It’s almost impossible to make the exact same bets that sharps are making at the same time. Sharp moves are usually only revealed to the betting public through line movement. By the time a line has moved, the same bet might not be as desirable. Plus, there is the off chance that sharp bettors are using a head fake. Sharps will sometimes attempt to cause a steam move on one side of a bet. After the line shifts to the number they like, the pros then come back and bet heavy on the other side.  Regardless, if you can find a way to follow sharp money, knowing the philosophy of sharp bettors can only help you in the long run. https://youtu.be/8MB3UO9Y4Mc

Get all your sports betting info in one place. Key Points – Bettors can find value in having all of their betting information in one place. – Information is what helps bettors make better decisions. Variety of Sports Sports betting is a popular activity all over the world, and there are a variety of sports that people can bet on. The most popular sports for betting are usually football, basketball, baseball, and hockey. There are also many other sports that people bet on including tennis, golf, boxing, and even auto racing. In addition to traditional sports betting, there is also a growing trend in online sports betting. People can bet on sports events taking place all over the world and now, they can bet live while an event is taking place. With so many different options available, there is sure to be a sport that everyone can enjoy betting on. Odds - All Your Sports Betting Info in One Place Anyone who has ever placed a bet on a sporting event knows that the one of the things you find on your sports betting site are odds. Odds can be confusing. How do sports betting odds work? Basically, the oddsmaker creates lines based on their prediction of the results of a game. These lines are meant to encourage even betting on both sides. Sportsbooks make money by collecting a commission on losing bets, also known as the vigorish, or juice. The odds may also be affected by public opinion. If a lot of people are betting on one team, the sportsbook may adjust the line to encourage more betting on the other team. This is known as line movement. Understanding how sports betting odds work can help you make more informed betting decisions and give you a better chance of winning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTm-U3DKuEU Variety of Bets Your sports betting site of choice will allow you to make any of a number of different types of sports bets. The simplest is the moneyline bet. Moneyline bets involve betting on which team will win the game outright. Point spread bets involve handicapping the favored team by a certain number of points. You win if your team wins by more than that margin. Totals bets involve betting on whether the final score will be over or under a certain number. The number is set by oddsmakers. There are also more complex bets like parlays and teasers. Parlays involve combining multiple bets into one.  You win if all of your bets are successful. Teasers are a form of parlay and involve adjusting the point spread in your favor. Again, you need to correctly predict more than one outcome to win the bet. There are many other types of sports bets - futures and prop bets come to mind - you can make, but these are some of the most common. COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING MARKETS Reading Sports Betting Lines If you\'re new to sports betting, the betting lines can seem confusing. Here\'s a quick guide to help you understand how to read sports betting lines. The first thing you need to know is that sports betting lines are not simply random numbers. They are actually created by oddsmakers, who use different factors to determine how likely it is that one team will win over another. One of the most important factors they consider is each team\'s past performance. Based on this information, they will assign a \"line\" to each team. This is also called the point spread. To bet on a favored team, you would need to risk more money than you would if you were betting on an underdog. For example, let\'s say that the line for the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins is -7 for the Patriots (favored) and +7 for the Dolphins (underdog). This means that the Patriots are 7-point favorites. In order to win $100, you would need to bet $107 on them. In contrast, if you wanted to bet on the Dolphins, you would only need to risk $93 dollars to win $100. Of course, sports betting lines are not always this simple. There are also many other types of bets that you can make, such as bets on how many points will be scored in a game or who will win specific quarters or halves. However, understanding how sports betting lines work will give you a good foundation for making any type of bet. Using Statistics in Betting When it comes to sports betting, statistics can be a valuable tool. By analyzing past performance, bettors can gain insights into a team or player\'s likely future performance. This information can then be used to make more informed betting decisions. Having this information available in a comprehensive site is valuable. Bettors can check lines and odds, read previews, look at stats, and make sound betting decisions. Of course, reading and using sports statistics is not an exact science. There is always some element of risk involved. However, by carefully studying the available data, bettors can give themselves a better chance of coming out ahead in the long run. All-in-One - Sports Betting Info It is important to have access to all the necessary information in order to make smart bets. This is where an all-access, all-in-one sports betting site becomes mandatory for the smarter bettor. Users must have all the latest news, tips and analysis from around the sports betting world. Whether you are just starting out or are a seasoned pro, having all of your betting needs and information in one site is extremely valuable.

College Football betting markets is what we’re learning about today. Key Points – Betting on college football is extremely popular, especially among U.S. bettors. – Winning college football bets starts with understanding the various markets. College Football Betting Markets It is one of the most popular sports for bettors. College football betting markets are a plenty, and loaded with value. And this is each and every week and all season long. They attract bettors by the millions. College football, along with the NFL, makes up the most-watched spectator sport in the U.S. With the increase in popularity of sports betting in general, there are now more bettors than ever entering college football betting markets. To get the most out of betting college football, bettors need to understand some of the basics. ICYMI > ANALYZING NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING ODDS Picking The Moneyline The most basic of bets is the easiest for new bettors to understand. It’s like when you were at school and bet your buddy $20 that Ohio State would beat Rutgers. Your buddy was from New Jersey and was obviously not very bright, but when the Buckeyes won you collected a $20 bill.  We are looking at the premise of the moneyline bet. There are odds involved which will identify which team is the favorite and which is the underdog. The odds will also help to calculate a payout based on how much is wagered. Using the same Ohio State-Rutgers matchup, we may see the moneyline presented like this. Ohio State -750 Rutgers +550 Moneyline favorites are designated with the minus “-” sign and underdogs with the plus “+” sign. The odds help us calculate a payout. In this case, a bettor would have to lay out $750 just to win $100 on the Buckeyes.  On the other end of the bet, a $100 wager on the Scarlet Knights would pay out $550 if they were to pull the upset.  Because of the number of teams (131) in FBS college football, there are huge differences in talent between schools like Ohio State and Rutgers. Upsets happen, but there are occasions when a moneyline underdog might be given +1000 or even +2000 odds to win. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7AuakBjZkE Point Spread Bets & College Football Betting Markets Betting the point spread is the most popular of all NCAA football bets. Oddsmakers set a point spread as a means of leveling the playing field between two teams. Again, because of the vast differences in talent among teams, college football bettors should not be surprised by the number of double-digit point spreads.  In the NFL, there are fewer teams and any team can beat any other team in a given week. That’s why double-digit point spreads are not as common in the NFL.  Using the same Ohio State-Rutgers example, oddsmakers level the playing field by giving the Scarlet Knights a certain number of points. Let’s say it is 18.5 points. Essentially, a sportsbook is saying that there is a 50/50 chance that the Buckeyes will win the game by 19 points or more.  The line on the game might look like this. Ohio State -18.5 (-110) Rutgers +18.5 (-110) The Buckeyes are the favorite (it’s the same as the moneyline where the minus “-” sign designates) in this game. Rutgers is the underdog. The odds, or juice, is -110 meaning a bettor must wager $1.10 to win a $1 on either side of the bet.  If you like the Buckeyes, you wager $110 on Ohio State to cover the spread. Your bet wins if the Buckeyes win by 19 or more points. Your payout is $100. Totals - Over / Under Another popular college football betting market is the game total, or Over/Under. Here, bettors wager on the final combined score of a game. Football oddsmakers establish a total number of points. Bettors wager that the final score of the game will go Over that total or Under it. The total is a great bet when a bettor can’t come to a decision on picking a side. Any bet on a game total is not affected by the outcome of a game, only the final score. We are going to stick with Ohio State and Rutgers. We are going to say their total is set at 62.5. Ohio State O 62.5 (-110) Rutgers U 62.5 (-110) Let’s say you know Ohio State’s powerful offense will have its way with the Rutgers defense. You predict the total to go Over, so you bet $110 on the Over.  The Ohio State offense goes off and Rutgers scores a couple touchdowns late in the fourth quarter. The final score is 55-14. The combined total is 69 points, which is well Over the posted game total. Your bet pays you $100. College Football Betting Markets - Props Prop bets are making a strong run to become a favorite among college football bettors. Props are fun. And they are not necessarily tied to the outcome of a game, whether is team or player props that you are into. Typically, prop bets are listed much like a totals bet where the bettor will wager on the Over or the Under. Take the following example with Player A in the category of rushing yards. Player A O 75.5 (-120) Player A U 75.5 (-120) If Player A’s rushing average per game is around 75 yards and his team is playing a defense that gives up a lot of rushing yards, you might wager on the Over here. A $120 bet would pay out $100 if Player A ran for 76 or more yards. Note that props bets typically carry a little higher juice than the standard -110. There are also Yes/No props and others like First Touchdown or Anytime Touchdown where you wager on a player to score a game’s first touchdown or to simply score a touchdown at any point during a game. Futures The NCAAF futures market includes wagers on things that will happen in the future. The most popular of CFB futures bets is on the team to win the College Football Playoff national championship.  The odds for the national champion will be coming out soon after the previous year’s champion has been decided. It is not unusual to find a favorite to win the CFP national title at +500 or even higher odds. The strong contenders may even be given odds closer to +1000 at top sportsbooks. Bettors can get in early and cash in on a larger payout. A $100 bet on a team to win the national title at +1000 odds pays out $1000.Odds will change, of course, as the season plays out. Bettors can also find futures odds on things like the Heisman Trophy winner and the NCAA Coach of the Year.

Navigating NCAA Football betting odds can get tricky. But we got your back. Key Points – Analyzing NCAA football betting odds can help the college football bettor improve his winning percentage.  – There are a number of areas in which to look for favorable NCAA football betting odds. Need to Know - NCAA Football Betting Odds In terms of popularity, betting on college football games rivals that of the NFL. College football bettors can’t wait for a season to begin so they can start cranking out point spread and totals bets. Unlike baseball which lends itself to moneyline bets, college football is more of a point spread and totals sport. So, how do college football bettors succeed? Part of betting success in the sport comes from analyzing NCAA football betting odds. If you know what to look for, you can increase your chances of success. Here’s what you can do. But before we do get into it, there’s something else you can do. Pro handicapper win percentages are high enough that you don’t have to worry. They have your back if you’re too busy. Understand the Sport College football is not the NFL. There are 131 FBS programs right now. Teams typically carry around 100 players on their rosters and there is a huge difference between the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world and New Mexico State and Connecticut.  NFL bettors do not see very many double-digit point spreads. In college football, bettors are not surprised when they see a point spread of over 20, 30, or even 40! There are vast differences in talent between the best teams in the country and those programs that simply aren’t as good. Whereas the worst team in the NFL could - and has - beat the best team in the league, the worst team in college football would repeatedly get smacked around by the best. Upsets do happen in college football, but there is not as much parity like there is in the NFL. Home Field Advantage & NCAA Football Betting Odds When analyzing NCAA football betting odds, one of the first things bettors may look at is which team is at home. Playing at home is a bigger deal in college football than it is at the NFL level.  When you are talking about teenagers and early 20-year-olds having to travel to and screw up their routines, playing at home has its advantages. However, home field advantage is most often overvalued.  Home field advantage is factored into NCAA football betting odds. Casual bettors love home teams and sportsbooks often shade lines toward them. The result is that the betting public often bets on overpriced home favorites. Smarter bettors know when to tail and fade the public. The reality is that roughly 59 percent of home teams win. Against the spread, it’s a completely different story. Since 2005, home college football teams have won against the spread just 48.8 percent of the time.  That means a $100 bettor wagering on every home team to cover would have lost over $48K over that time period. The bottom line is to be careful when analyzing college football odds and home teams. The Thing about Road Underdogs If you simply bet on favorites all the time, your bankroll probably isn’t going to grow very much. You need to win just over 52 percent of the time (assuming -110 odds) just to break even. That’s why it pays to bet on strong college football underdogs from time to time. There are certain situations where betting the underdog makes a ton of sense. One of those situations is the short road underdog. By short, we are talking about an underdog that is getting four or fewer points (+4). The betting public, as we already know, loves home teams. The other thing the public likes is favorites. Combine the two - home favorites - and the public just gets giddy. What makes it even better is when a home favorite is laying four or fewer points (-4) at top offshore sportsbooks. That means a home favorite only has to win by five or more points. The public loves those types of home favorites. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Opr8EybfDY Road Dogs Upset Home Favorites 47% of the Time The reality is that road underdogs actually upset home favorites just over 47 percent of the time. Since 2005, road dogs are 532-598 (47.1%). Yes, that’s a losing record, but because of plus-money odds on the moneyline a bettor would actually be up well over 80 units.  What’s even more eye-opening is that road underdogs actually win against the spread at an even higher rate. Since 2005, road underdogs are 600-508 ATS (54.2%). Betting college football road underdogs is a strategy worth considering when analyzing odds. The other situation where it pays to look at a road underdog is when there is a low total. Low totals favor underdogs for one simple reason. Fewer points makes it more difficult for a favorite to cover the spread.  In games with a total of 50 or less since 2005, road underdogs have gone 1062-933 ATS (53.2%). If you take the total down to 45 or less, the ATS winning percentage goes up to 54.6%. When the road underdog with a total of 45 or less is facing a conference opponent, the ATS winning percentage goes even higher - 55.9%. Familiarity with the opponent favors the underdog. Watch the Schedule When Analyzing NCAA Football Betting Odds College teams play a 12-game regular season schedule. Teams can schedule games during the last week of August, which is commonly referred to as Week 0. The final week of the season is known as Week 15. Typically, the only game on the schedule is the annual Army-Navy rivalry. That means college teams have roughly 15 to 16 weeks to play 12 games. That means that teams will have an off week. One area where bettors can do some analyzing is on home favorites coming off a bye week. Teams get that extra week to get healthier. Members of a coaching staff are able to prepare better for an upcoming opponent. The results are something that bettors should keep an eye out for. Since 2005, home favorites after a bye week are 289-235 ATS (55.2%). When those home favorites are ranked in the AP Top 25, the numbers are even better. Ranked home favorites after an off week are 90-61 ATS (59.6%) beating the spread nearly 60 percent of the time.  Keep an eye on the schedule and look for home favorites coming off a bye week.

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