Use the Four Factors model to win more NBA bets. Key Points – The Four Factors model reveals how teams win NBA games. – Using the Four Factors can help NBA bettors win more bets. Using the Four Factors to Win More NBA Bets Sports bettors continually search for tips to help them win more of their wagers. NBA bettors are no exception when a new season rolls around they prepare for success. One way that many bettors have found to win more NBA bets is by using the Four Factors model made famous by Dean Oliver. Oliver wrote a book called Basketball on Paper in 2004. In his book, he identified four primary factors that lead to success in basketball. The book wasn’t necessarily for sports bettors, but bettors have found it to be useful. In his work, Oliver identified four areas of the game that lead to wins. The idea, of course, in basketball is to score more than your opponent. You can only score when you possess the basketball. Therefore, possession is very important. Each of the four factors presented in Oliver’s model are related to the termination of an offensive possession. Specifically, those possessions that do not end in a basket. The Four Factors In the book, Oliver identifies his four factors. These are things that basketball teams must do in order to win games. In the very simplest terms, the four factors are: Score efficiently Protect the ball on offense Grab as many rebounds as possible Go to the free throw line as often as possible To win basketball games, teams should score on most of their possessions. They should not turn the ball over frequently. Winning teams should get offensive rebounds and they should shoot more free throws than their opponent. That sums up the Four Factors. It’s an easy recipe for success on the basketball court. How can basketball bettors use these factors and win more NBA bets? RELATED: TRACKING BETS - REASONS TO KEEP BETTING RECORDS Win More NBA Bets - Effective FG Percentage In a perfect world, a team would score every time it has possession of the basketball. Since the world is not perfect, this doesn’t happen but some teams are more effective than others at turning a possession into points. For Oliver, he wanted a way to measure scoring in the NBA. Using just points isn’t the best way to learn how efficient a team is with its possessions. A team that plays at a breakneck pace may score a lot of points, but it might not be all that efficient. That’s why Oliver came up with Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). What eFG% will give you is a relative measurement for points scored per field goal attempt. It’s adjusted to account for three-point field goals. The calculation is as follows: eFG% = FGM+ 0.5(3PM)/FGA In the equation, Effective Field Goal Percentage is equal to the number of field goals made (FGM) plus 0.5 times the number of three-point field goals made all divided by the number of field goals attempted. In the 2021-22 NBA season, the top five teams in eFG% in order were Denver, Golden State, Utah, Phoenix, and Charlotte. All five of those teams made the postseason. Phoenix had the best regular season record in the league and the Warriors, of course, won the NBA title. Rebounding Offenses do not score on every shot they take, but they can extend a possession by grabbing an offensive rebound. Teams that get more offensive rebounds tend to win more games because they have more chances to score. Bettors can use something called Offensive Rebounding Percentage to help them determine which team might be more successful. OREB% is the best measure of a team’s ability to secure offensive rebounds. It is calculated by taking the number of offensive rebounds and dividing it by the total number of rebounds available after a missed field goal attempt. It’s important to note that not all field goal misses are available for a rebound. For example, time can expire at the end of a quarter as a shot goes astray. In that case, no rebound is recorded. Of the top five teams in OREB% in the 2021-22 NBA season, only Indiana failed to qualify for the postseason. Memphis led the NBA in OREB% (29.4%) and was the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. If you want to win more NBA bets, look for teams that have success on the offensive glass. Free Throw Rate Today’s style of play in the NBA is more of a drive and kick philosophy. Teams that penetrate defenses and attack the basket are teams that usually shoot more free throws. Teams that shoot more free throws than their opponents usually have success. Points gained at the line are free. The more you get, the better chance you have at winning. It’s the same with betting on basketball. You can avoid these habits of losing sports bettors and win more NBA bets by figuring out which team shoots more free throws. Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) is a simple calculation. You take the Free Throws Made (FTM) and divide that by Field Goals Attempted (FGA). The Philadelphia 76ers made the most free throws per game (19.5) during the 2021-22 NBA season. The Sixers also attempted the fewest field goals per game (83.7) that season. Not surprisingly, their FT Rate was among the best in the NBA. Philadelphia was the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs that season. Win More NBA Bets - Turnover Battle The fourth and final factor is related to turnovers. Teams that don’t end possessions with turnovers typically fare better and win more games. Teams that turn the ball over a lot don’t win. It’s that simple. The measurement is pretty simple for bettors looking to win more NBA bets. The calculation is the number of turnovers divided by the number of offensive possessions. This yields a team’s Turnover Percentage. The top nine teams in the NBA in Turnover Percentage in the 2021-22 season all made the play-in tournament and/or the playoffs. Teams that have numbers in the 12 to 13 percent range are typically among the best in the league at any given time. NBA bettors looking to win more bets this playoff season can look to the Four Factors Model for guidance. Teams that make the most of each possession tend to have more success on the floor. That knowledge is valuable to bettors and it will allow them to make strong choices on bets this NBA season.
Smart bettors are tracking bets. Key Points – Tracking bets is one of the habits of winning bettors. – Tracking bets is easy given today’s technology. Tracking Bets - Reasons to Keep Betting Records You\'re doing it wrong if you bet on sports and are not tracking bets. Keeping betting records is something that pretty much every serious bettor does in an effort to optimize profits. It’s one of the biggest betting mistakes made by sports bettors today. Maintaining records is quite simple to do. All you need to do is jot a few quick notes after each bet. This is definitely worthwhile because taking the extra time has a number of advantages. The most significant of these advantages are covered below, along with some suggestions for maintaining precise and beneficial records. Tracking Bets - Wins & Losses Most bettors don’t know how much they are winning or losing. This is especially true for people who simply gamble for fun. Even if you might not believe it matters all that much, there are still good reasons for tracking bets. One big reason is that you might be losing more than you realize. It\'s not unusual for bettors to recall their victories while forgetting their losses. If you\'re gambling with money you can afford to lose, losing money is not necessarily an issue. However, you should still keep track of the amounts at stake. It\'s likely that you are actually spending more than you would prefer. In that case, it could be time to cut back on the size of your wagers. Of course, there\'s also a good chance that you\'re actually winning money. In fact, you might be winning more cash than you realize. It could be time to start treating your betting more seriously in this situation. Think about what you could accomplish if you put in the necessary work when you are already making a steady profit. You might be able to earn a very excellent living by investing a little more time in your betting. Don’t forget about the tax man. Depending upon your local laws, you may be required to pay taxes on your winnings. In that case, tracking bets will be critical. EDITOR’S CHOICE: FINDING SHARP MONEY ACTION IN SPORTS BETTING Strengths & Weaknesses What are strengths? Are there bets that you consistently win? Maybe you enjoy betting on the NFL, but you rarely win point spread bets. You won’t know how many you lose unless you are tracking bets. Many people who partake in recreational gambling wager on a variety of sports and events. In addition, they frequently make a variety of bets. There is nothing wrong with this strategy, but if you aren\'t tracking your wagers you probably don’t know which ones suit you best. It\'s entirely possible that you perform really well in one or two specific sports but not as well in the others. It\'s possible that you do well when betting on point spreads yet consistently lose when betting on totals. Having this information is vital. You can use it to take action that could improve your overall betting performance. You might start by concentrating mainly on your strong points. You should see an improvement in profits if you focus your efforts on placing bets on the sports where you have the most success. At the very least, you can eliminate some of your losses. You may spend some time researching your mistakes in the areas where you fall short. Review your results and identify any errors. The only way you will be able to do this is by tracking bets. New Betting Strategies Even if you are just a recreational bettor, betting is way more fun when you win. You don’t want to be the losing sports bettor. As a result, bettors should always seek ways to improve performance. The first step is tracking bets. You have to have background information in order to determine which strategy will be most effective. Continue tracking bets to determine if the new strategy is working. If not, it’s time to move on to the next one, like the Martingale Betting System. Tips for Tracking Bets As mentioned, maintaining a betting log is simple. However, you must ensure that your records are correct if you want to maximize their value. You must at the very least keep track of the following details for each wager you make. SelectionStakeOddsResultReturn winnings The simplest way to do this is to build a spreadsheet using software like Microsoft Excel. When you create columns for each of the aforementioned items, all you have to do is input the pertinent information each time you place a wager. This will be sufficient to guarantee that you maintain simple and precise records of your betting activity. Tracking Bets - Reasons to Keep Betting Records You can go even deeper if you like. You can add each of the following to your spreadsheet. SportEvent/Competition/LeagueForm of BetMotives for Gambling By categorizing your bets in this manner, it is much simpler to determine where you are performing best. You may easily view all of your bets, for instance, that were placed on a specific sport or category. This is useful to find out where you win or lose the most. You can really delve into some in-depth study if you are tracking bets. As a casual bettor, you might want to avoid doing this because it can be time-consuming. If you\'re sincere about trying to succeed, you\'ll find it to be a huge aid. You will have a much clearer understanding of what you\'re doing properly and where you\'re making mistakes if you analyze your performance in light of your betting motivations. As a result, you will be able to win more bets.
How to find sharp money action in sports betting. Key Points – Finding sharp money action in sports betting takes some skill. – Identifying sharp money action can help you win more bets. Finding Sharp Money Action in Sports Betting Sports bettors these days should have an understanding of what sharp money is. Essentially, sharp money refers to wagers made by the most knowledgeable and skilled players - professional bettors. Trying to determine where the sharp money action is on a game and what it signifies is one of the more interesting things a bettor does. Locating sharp money moves can also be one of the more rewarding things a bettor does. Identifying Sharp Money Action The best bettors often don\'t make their wagers public knowledge, so you can\'t just ask the bookmakers where the smart money is. Finding and identifying where the sharp money action is takes some work. It takes some careful observation as well as a few slick techniques. These days, with all of the modern advances in technology, you can subscribe to services that will inform you of if the pros are causing line movements. You also use your own skills to identify these movements. When the odds change quickly, you may occasionally see a line released and then viciously attacked. This happens in NFL football often. Take, for instance, a game where the line opens at 10. In a matter of hours, the line drops all the way down six. For the smarter bettor, this should raise a red flag. Although lines can move that much as a result of vigorous public support on one side, it’s not all that likely. The big reason for the shift is sharp money action. The pros saw extreme value on the line and pounded it. Sportsbooks reacted quickly by adjusting the line downward. In this case, it moved all the way to six, a clear indication that massive amounts of money came in on one side of the bet. THE LATEST: WIN CFB BEST ON TEAMS OFF BYE WEEKS Sportsbooks Make a Mistake It doesn’t happen all that often, but sportsbooks and oddsmakers sometimes make mistakes. A line opens that is simply way off. Sharp bettors, as well as those that recognize the error, jump on the line right away. When a line adjusts extremely quickly, it’s a pretty good indicator that professional bettors identified the problem with the line and bet accordingly. While the line adjusts, the average bettor must work to get the same - or at least similar - value as the professional bettors. Just because you bet on the same side as the smart money doesn’t mean you will be profitable. If you don’t identify the line movement or miss it altogether, there is often little value in following the sharp money action. That said, there is still some value in noticing these line adjustments. The benefit is that you can analyze the game carefully and try to determine why sports bettors believed the original line to be incorrect. The more often you do this, the better you get at recognizing mistakes. That means you will be more likely to identify errors in lines and act accordingly. To sum it up, finding these moves and studying them can help you become a better bettor. Looking at Ticket Numbers When a game goes against what you would anticipate, it might be difficult to determine how much money has been wagered on each team. However, you can learn how many wagers - the number of tickets - have been made on each team. The odds for any given team in a game should normally become less appealing when the number of tickets for one team is a sizable majority over the other. If you have a game in which one team is getting 70 percent of the tickets for example, you have a situation where there will likely be a line change. Remember, bookmakers are in the business of making money. Ideally, for them, they would like to take in equal amounts of action on each side of a bet. With 70 percent of the tickets on one side of the bet, sportsbooks are likely to adjust a line to encourage action on the other side of the bet. This way, sportsbooks can earn a profit with minimal risk. Bettors that can identify these situations can use that knowledge to their advantage. Finding Sharp Money Action in Sports Betting Betting Against the Public The betting public, as it is known, is made up of bettors who bet on games recreationally. These bettors typically wager on favorites, popular teams, popular players, and Overs. Public bettors love scoring. It makes for exciting games. The problem is that the betting public is most often wrong. That’s why sportsbooks are still in business. The house is right more often than it is wrong. Being on the side of the house - betting against the public - makes sense then. Think about high-profile games with popular opponents. In MLB, that might be a Yankees-Dodgers or a Yankees-Red Sox game. In college football, it’s an SEC matchup like Alabama-Georgia or Michigan-Ohio State. You get the idea. If the Yankees are favored to beat the Red Sox, the public jumps all over New York. If Alabama is favored to beat Georgia and the total is 55, the public pounds on the Crimson Tide and the Over. In these high-profile games, it’s a little harder to tell if a line movement is due to sharp money action. Regardless, you can get an idea of how the public has moved a line and bet accordingly. If all of your other research points to an opportunity to bet against the public, go for it.
Win CFB bets wagering on teams coming off bye weeks. Key Points – There are multiple ways to win CFB bets on teams coming off bye weeks. – To win CFB bets consistently, look for certain teams off bye weeks. Win CFB Bets on Teams Off Bye Weeks The majority of college football teams plan a week off sometime during the course of the season. Some teams discover that the break occurs after they have only played one game due to scheduling irregularities. The advantages of taking a break later in the season are clear. They first give players an extra week to recover physically and get ready to play at a high level once more. Perhaps more importantly, it provides the coaching staff an extra week to prepare for their next opponent. There is also time to reflect on a team\'s performance up to that point in the season. Coaches can then identify anything that can be improved. College football teams that have recently returned from a bye week are always worth paying attention to if you are a college football bettor. They can be a key in the various college football betting markets. Win CFB Bets - Game 1 What is very interesting in college football is how a team’s performance in Week 1 affects their performance in Week 2 in a number of situations. Often, college teams will schedule a bye early in the season. Many teams will get that bye after their first game. Teams that lose their first game and then have an extra week off are only 56-70 ATS over the last 120-plus games. What’s even worse is those teams - loss in Game 1 and a bye in Week 2 - when playing on the road went 28-43 ATS (39.4%). It was almost the exact opposite for teams that won their game of the season. Teams starting the season 1-0 with a bye in Week 2 went on to go 114-84-4 ATS in their next game. It’s really not hard to identify why and it can help you win CFB bets. Teams that win their first game get two weeks to feel good about themselves. They are in a better frame of mind and practice more effectively. Coaches and players are more upbeat and they realize the implications of going 2-0 to start a season. On the other end, a loss in Week 1 leads to some doubt. Practices probably aren’t as great and coaches realize the ramifications of starting a season 0-2. The negativity can lead to poor performances in that next game. Most teams have moved away from a bye that early in the season. There are a few recent examples, however. CFB BETTORS MUST READ >>> THE BEST KEPT SECRET IN SPORTS BETTING Winner, Winner Florida State won its first game of the 2022 college football season beating FCS Duquesne 47-7. The offense was outstanding and it was great for a program that has had its fair share of troubles over the past several years. The Seminoles had the next week off prior to a huge game against a ranked LSU team. As stated above, the win in the first week provided FSU with enough positivity that they went into their game with LSU extremely confident. Florida State won the game 24-23 and went on to start the season with four straight wins. That is something the program had not done in several years. ACC rival North Carolina did the same thing. The Tar Heels beat FCS Florida A&M in Game 1, took a week off, and then came back to beat Appalachian State in a shootout, 63-61. If you are looking to win CFB bets, this is a solid bye week strategy. Win CFB Bets on Teams Off Bye Weeks What the Numbers Say There are two conventional trains of thought when it comes to bye weeks in college football. Some bettors believe the extra week off gives players a chance to recover and get healthy. It also helps coaches in their preparations for the next opponent. Other bettors tend to believe that the extra time off can cause a team to come out flat in its next game. The routine that teams are used to gets thrown out of whack. As a result, teams don’t play as well, or at least some bettors think this way. Nothing tells the story better than the numbers. They are both right. Diving into the numbers, teams coming off a bye have gone 916-87-27 (51.2%) since the 2005 season. There is somewhat of an edge. However, bettors looking to win CFB bets should not simply bet on every team after a bye. Is there an advantage that CFB bettors can exploit? Is it something that will help to avoid these habits of the losing sports bettor? Win CFB Bets - Ranked Teams After a Bye Top 25 teams are typically the best teams in the country at a given point in a college football season. These are the schools with the best coaches, the best facilities, and the best players in the nation. Teams like this are extremely capable of putting an extra week to prepare and recover to use. In fact, the numbers support this idea. Since 2005, AP Top 25 ranked teams coming off a bye week have gone 180-152-0 (54.2%) ATS. That is just as significant as betting against the public in certain situations. One Step Further Bettors looking to win CFB bets can actually take this ranked team idea one step further. Look for top 25 teams after a bye that are playing at home. Not having to go on the road increases the advantages these teams get from an extra week off. The numbers support this as well. Ranked teams playing at home the week after a bye have covered the spread in 58.9 percent of their games since 2005. The average bettor can win CFB bets and make money on this strategy. It has been profitable in 10 of the last 13 seasons.
Learn to avoid these habits of the losing sports bettor. Key Points – The losing sports bettor lacks clear goals. – Avoiding these habits can help anyone become more successful as a bettor. Avoid These Habits of the Losing Sports Bettor You can read blog post after blog post that emphasizes how to become a winning sports bettor. What if we looked at it from another perspective? Sports bettors don’t like to lose, but too many of them do. What if we looked at all the things the losing sports bettor does? If we could simply eliminate a few or even all of these habits, it might just turn the tide in our sport betting careers. Here are several habits of the losing sports bettor. With them identified, we should be able to use this list to our benefit, eliminating bad bets. Lack of Defined Goals What exactly are your objectives in sports betting? It\'s acceptable if your season-long objective is simply to have fun. It\'s also acceptable if your main objective is to just improve the games\' entertainment value. The problem with both of those goals is that they can’t be measured. One thing surely improves fun and entertainment value - winning bets! And, for the record, winning bets would mean profitable bets. Ask yourself how much you have won betting on sports this week or this month. If you don’t know, it’s because 1) you don’t have clear goals set and 2) you aren’t keeping accurate records of your bets. These are habits of the losing sports bettor. The Losing Sports Bettor Doesn’t Do Research The majority of losers in the sports betting industry just wager on their favorite teams. They don’t care who the opponent is, where the game is being played, and they have no clue if any star players are injured. Most often, losing bettors don’t even bother to look at the point spread or the moneyline odds. They only care that it is their favorite team. That’s great if you are okay with losing. However, this is a strategy that will not work if you are planning on being a profitable sports bettor. Every game you bet on should be researched. At the very least, use the services of a professional handicapper for help with the pick. Don’t bet blindly. FINALLY REVEALED >>> THE BEST KEPT SECRET IN SPORTS BETTING Lack of Line & Odds Shopping Your return on investment is significantly impacted by the amount of vig you pay. Sometimes you might find wagers where you simply need to wager $105 to win $100. The same wager is also available in books where you must wager $120 in order to win $100. Here’s the key. Remember, that at standard odds of -110, bettors must wager $110 to win $100. In order to just break even, bettors must win 52.4 percent of the time. However, if you consistently pay $105 to win $100, your break-even point shrinks to 51.2 percent. Consistently, getting better pricing on your bets will help to increase your bankroll. It can also help to win bets. Line shopping can help you find an extra half-point on a spread that could mean the difference between a loss and a win. The Losing Sports Bettor Fails to Manage Money Bankroll management is one of the simplest things bettors can do to help them make money. It’s also one of the most difficult, especially for the losing sports bettor. The loser lacks the discipline to stick to the money management plan. Here’s an example. You have a bankroll of $10,000. On the Sunday NFL schedule, you estimate that all the underdogs have a 65 percent chance of winning. You bet a total of $5,000 on all the week’s underdogs. Those underdogs also have a 35 percent chance of losing. If they all lose, you lose half your bankroll in one day. That’s not great money management. Typically, winning bettors will stake 1 to 5 percent of their bankroll per bet. That means if you had a $10,000 bankroll, you would be placing $100 wagers on conservative bets and $500 wagers on more aggressive bets. In the long run, you will never bankrupt yourself because of some stretches of bad luck. Chasing Losses So, you lost your $5,000 on all of those NFL underdogs. You decide the best course of action is to make up for that big loss. You find a bet you really like with a probability of 70 percent. Let\'s assume that you did lose $5,000 on your 65% shot in the preceding scenario. The best course of action, in your opinion, is to quickly gain $5,000 to make up for that loss. You have a 70% probability of winning this week. What the losing bettor fails to recognize is that he has a 30 percent chance of losing. Avoid These Habits of the Losing Sports Bettor Losing bettors make these betting mistakes all the time. They chase their losses. Let\'s say you wagered $100 on 10 NFL games on a Sunday. You lose eight bets and win two. Despite winning $200, you lost $880 (assuming standard -110 odds). To make up for the loss, you decide to place a sizable wager on the game on Monday night. To make up for your losses and display a healthy profit for the week, you wager $1,000 on the game. The worst thing that happens is you win that bet. Now, you believe you can chase your losses with big wagers. It may work occasionally, but in the end, it will bankrupt you. Betting with the Public The betting public is generally wrong most of the time. That’s why sportsbooks are still in business. From time to time, it would be a good idea to bet against the public. A successful contrarian betting approach is to wager against the majority. Consider the NFL\'s most recent ten years. You would have won at least 53% of the time, and maybe 54%, if you had only wagered against the side on which 75% of the general public had gambled. This strategy of “fading the public” is something that the losing sports bettor doesn’t do. He should though as it can pay off. Making Too Many Bets Effective gamblers only wager when conditions are ideal. In other words, they just walk away from a wager if the predicted value is negative. It’s like poker players. The ones that win more often are the ones that fold when they have weak cards. Sports bettors need to learn when to fold ‘em, to quote the great Kenny Rogers. If a bet doesn’t have value, don’t place it. Don’t place bets for the sake of placing bets. Just because there are 16 NFL games on a Sunday, it doesn’t mean you should bet on every single one. Final Note To become a successful sports bettor, one should avoid the habits of the losing sports bettor. Simply do the opposite of what the loser does. That means have clear goals, research your bets, shop for the best pricing, manage your money right, don’t chase losses, bet against the public more often, and don’t make too many bets. Simply following these pieces of advice could lead you to a long and prosperous sports betting career. Sports betting success is possible for you. Start by kicking some of these extremely unproductive sports betting behaviors.
You should embrace betting against the public. Key Points – The betting public loves winners, favorites, and high-scoring games. – The betting public loses more often than it wins. Why You Should Embrace Betting Against the Public Betting against the public is betting against what most people expect. Another way to say it is “fading the public.” People vote with their money, and the outcome with the highest support is what the betting public expects. When a bet is one-sided, meaning most people are betting on one event, betting on the opposing outcome may be profitable. The idea behind this sports betting technique is that the public is usually wrong. If so, more sports bettors would be successful and more sportsbooks would be out of business. Whichever side of the bet gets the greatest action symbolizes public opinion. Statistically, public perception is wrong. The philosophy of sharp bettors is more often right. Therefore, bettors should embrace betting against the public. Identify Moving Lines Sportsbooks want to take in equal action on both sides of a bet to reduce risk. When the public bets too much on one side, the sportsbook adjusts the lines and odds to favor the other. These moving odds indicate public action. This is a great opportunity to fade the public especially since the sportsbook is giving you better odds on the other side of the bet. ICYMI: GUIDE TO THE MARTINGALE BETTING SYSTEM Factors that Influence the Public Popular opinion is formed by many causes, not all of which are facts. If you can find areas where people\'s opinions are influenced by other circumstances, it may make sense to bet against the public. Media hype is one such factor. The media’s reports might sway one outcome over another. The dominant media narrative influences people quickly, and public opinion snowballs. More people bet on the more popular teams. Casual bettors rely more on reputation rather than the probability that they might win. The more popular a team is, the more the public will back it. Playing at home is a crucial element in football, hockey, and basketball. It is also overvalued by the betting public. Bettors should always check a team’s short-term history of playing at home. It may not be as big of an advantage as the public thinks. Star players are another influence for the public. LeBron James is often the sole reason why bettors will back the Los Angeles Lakers. Star players do influence the outcome of a game, but their impact might be exaggerated. Betting Against the Public - Psychology It’s basic human psychology. The betting public loves winners. They love favorites and they love points. In terms of game totals, that means the betting public prefers to bet the Over. Even if you think the public is getting it right on a game’s outcome, you can still fade the public on the game total. Consider the number of times that an underdog has pulled the upset in a major event. Eighteen underdogs, for example, have won the Super Bowl. Every year in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, underdogs pull an average of a dozen upsets. These situations make it worth considering fading the public. Here are a few examples of betting against the public. Bet the Underdog to Win Start simply. The public is all over the New York Yankees in a game against Toronto. Casual bettors haven’t really followed the Yankees, but they know they lead their division and are one of the best teams in MLB. Add in that the Yankees are playing at home. In games between division rivals like this, underdogs have an advantage because of the number of times - 19 - they play the other team. That advantage is even more magnified when the underdog is on the road. Remember, the public tends to overvalue home field advantage. In MLB, underdogs win straight up 44 percent of the time. Road divisional underdogs win at a slightly higher clip. Betting against the public in these situations is one way to win more MLB bets. Betting Against the Public - Point Spread In the NFL, the most popular bet is against the point spread. Again, the public tends to favor popular teams and star players. Home field is often overvalued and sportsbooks actually shade their lines to the public. Your top NFL picks may be those that go against the public’s choices. Over the past few years, teams like the Chiefs, Packers, and Buccaneers have been popular with the betting public. Each team has a popular quarterback and each team has had great success over the past few seasons. Let’s say the Chiefs are favored over a less popular team like the Bears. The line is set at 7.5. Chicago is playing well on the road and their defense has been outstanding. The Bears +7.5 covers the most common key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. This is a great spot to bet against the public since the Bears can lose by a touchdown and you can still win your bet. What is interesting in the NFL is that in the previous four straight seasons underdogs have covered the spread more often than favorites. Last season, underdogs won outright in 37 percent of all regular season games. Why You Should Embrace Betting Against the Public Totals Betting The psychology of sports betting makes totals bets a target in low-scoring sports like hockey and soccer. Low-scoring games are rarely bet on. The public prefers games with high scores. Consider a World Cup final between Portugal and Argentina. Media attention on a handful of the world’s best players will likely lead to high expectations for goals. People are excited for the World Cup final. The public wagers on the Over, expecting a high-scoring match. More money is brought in on the Over. Sportsbooks adjust and now the smart bettor can get great odds on the Under. Keep in mind that World Cup finals are often low-scoring matches. The same logic applies to totals betting in other sports. When public opinion favors a high amount of goals or points, consider the Under. Betting against the public should be part of any smart bettor’s strategy. The public loses way too often. That’s why sportsbooks are still in business. Being on the side of the house is where you want to be.
Your guide to the Martingale betting system. Key Points – The Martingale betting system has been around for years. – There are a few different versions of the Martingale betting system. Guide to the Martingale Betting System One thing has been true in sports betting since the beginning of time. Bettors are constantly searching for ways to outsmart the system and win big. The Martingale betting system has been around for a while and many bettors are familiar with it. It’s a tactic or method of betting that, on the surface, looks to promise quick and easy profits. The big question, of course, is if it really works. Here, we explain the Marginale system and whether or not you might consider adding it to your betting tool box. What Exactly Is the Martingale Betting System? The 18th century saw the invention of the Martingale system of betting. Although it wasn\'t intended to be a gambling strategy at first, it quickly became well-known among bettors. The simplicity of this approach is one of the factors that contributed to its popularity. Over the years, it’s entirely possible that many early bettors were using the system but didn’t know it. The system uses a pretty basic mathematical strategy. In its easiest terms, the Martingale method recommends doubling your wager after each loss. According to the premise, you will make up your losses in subsequent rounds. In games with equal chances - meaning a 50/50 chance to win - this tactic works well. Any contest where the bettor has an equal chance on both sides will work for the Martingale betting system.. These games have odds of +200, which indicates that a $1 wager will result in a $2 payout. Think of roulette or a simple coin flip. In roulette, each round can produce red or black. Each coin flip can result in heads or tails. In choosing what to bet, these types of wagers work best. How It Works The gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work here. This is when a gambler attempts to predict the outcome of the next round based on all of the prior rounds. The Martingale betting system uses probability and simple algebra to avoid the gambler’s fallacy. It is founded on the idea that if you constantly have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing, neither outcome is possible. In other words, you can’t always win and you can’t always lose. Therefore, all you have to do to win is double the amount of your previous wager. If you wager $20 and lose, you place a $40 wager in the subsequent round. Just keep placing bets using this strategy until you win back your losses plus a profit! It\'s recommended that you go back to your initial wager (in this case, $20) after you\'ve won your money and then repeat the technique. Of course, you also need to consider your own financial situation and know when to quit. Want to know a secret? READ THIS: THE BEST KEPT SECRET IN SPORTS BETTING Traditional Martingale Betting System There are three distinct versions of the Martingale betting strategy, each of which operates slightly differently. The straightforward tactic we previously stated is called the Classic Martingale. Simply double your wager when you lose. When you win a round, simply go back to your previous wager and begin again.Here is an illustration of a situation in which you could gamble with a 50% probability of winning: In the example, the first number is the wager. Then, the result is given and finally, the profit. Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $20; loss: $30Round 3: $40; loss:-$70Round 4: $80; victory: $10Round 5: $10; loss; $0Round 6: $20; victory: $20Round 7: $10; victory: $30 Even though you only won slightly more than half the rounds, as you can see in this example, you still made a profit of $30. As long as you stick to the Martingale approach, you\'ll still turn a profit even if you have a really bad day. The Grand Strategy The Grand Martingale system is similar to the traditional one with one big difference. When you lose a bet, double it and add $1. Here\'s how this version works using a similar example like the one above. Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $21; loss: -$31Round 3: $43; victory: $12.Round 4: $10; victory: $22Round 5: $10; Loss: $12.Round 6: $21; loss: -$9Round 7: $42; victory: $33 Despite being riskier, it offers a marginally larger profit potential than the Classic Martingale. You will, however, reach the table restrictions faster, which means you risk wasting your cash without having an opportunity to recoup it. Keep in mind you may reach the betting limit when using the Martingale betting system. You may reach it before you have a chance to recoup your losses. Be careful and avoid these wagering mistakes. Guide to the Martingale Betting System The Paroli Method The Martingale methods we previously stated are straightforward and successful, however the Paroli System differs slightly. According to this tactic, it\'s best to raise the stakes while you\'re on a winning streak because wins and losses frequently occur in streaks. Here\'s what you should do: double your wager when you win. Once you place the third consecutive winning wager, stop doubling it. When you lose, start over with your original wager. Here\'s an illustration: Round 1: $10; loss: $10Round 2: $10; loss: $20Round 3: $10; loss: $30Round 4: $10; win; minus $20.Round 5: $20; victory: $0.Round 6: $40; victory: $40Round 7: $80; victory: $120Round 8: $80; victory: $200Round 9: $80; defeat; $120Round 10: $10; loss; $110 You still generated a profit of $110 despite only winning half the rounds, as you can see in this illustration. This is why many gamblers favor the streak-dependent Martingale over other systems. Essentially, you\'re only wagering with money that you won because you only raise the stakes when you\'re winning. Gamblers may find this to be much more reasonable. Pros and Cons of this Strategy On the plus side, the Martingale technique is exceedingly straightforward and simple to follow. It works well if you have a huge bankroll because it can be difficult to lose because there is always a chance of winning money again. Regardless of betting experience, anyone can employ the Martingale system. Do sharps use this strategy? Learn more about the philosophy of sharp bettors. On the negative side, the application of this system is restricted because it only functions when there are only two possible outcomes. Long-term wagers are not recommended since you risk accumulating too many losses. If your bankroll is minimal, you risk going bankrupt because it will be difficult to make up lost money. You can\'t utilize this approach \"forever\" because most casino games have limits on how much money bettors can win. Given these benefits and drawbacks, it\'s crucial to use caution when applying the Martingale approach.
What is the best kept secret in sports betting? Key Points – Bettors can take advantage of a sports betting secret, if they can find it. – Bettors would love to know the secret to sports betting. The Best Kept Secret in Sports Betting What is not a secret in sports betting is that all bettors want to win money. Sure, betting on sporting events is fun, but deep down there is a desire to win and win big. The problem is that the system is designed for the average sports bettor to lose. If every sports bettor always won, sportsbooks would be out of business and sports betting as we know it probably wouldn’t exist. Wouldn’t it be great if bettors could simply make strong betting choices and guarantee a win? That would be the best kept secret in sports betting. Arbitrage Defined There is something called arbitrage in sports betting. To some, it may not be a secret at all, but for the majority of bettors out there it probably comes as a surprise. An arbitrage occurs when a bettor places multiple wagers on the same event to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome. Usually, it happens as a result of many sportsbooks providing various odds for the same event. Arbitrage does require bettors to have multiple betting accounts at a variety of sportsbooks. Doing so allows a bettor to use arbitrage as a type of hedging; however, the actual definition calls for bettors to place all of their arbitrage bets at once. The concept can best be understood through the use of examples. ICYMI: STARTING YOUR OWN PPH SPORTSBOOK Same Game, Different Odds This will happen from time to time. Two bookies are simultaneously giving different odds on a game. The arbitrage bettor will wager on both to ensure a profit or at the very least a breakeven. Consider an MLB game between the Pirates and Cardinals. You place a $100 on the Pirates at +110. If Pittsburgh wins, you win $110. It’s a strong bet especially after you found the value on the Pirates. At the same time, you see that both the Pirates and the Cubs are listed at -105 at a different sportsbook. You put $105 on the Cubs to win. No matter the outcome, you profit $5. That may not sound like much, but imagine doing that 100 times. Imagine doing it with larger wagers as well. The best arbitrage situations occur when lines on an event open. That is when bettors, sportsbooks, oddsmakers, etc. have the least amount of information available for an upcoming event. As it gets closer to game time, the lines tighten up and the arbitrage chances disappear. Bettors can go online and access tools that will help them locate arbitrage opportunities. They can be found. In the 2020 MLB season for example, Tampa Bay was +128 -1.5 on the run line against Baltimore which was +1.5 at -120. For every dollar wagered, a bettor could earn eight cents. Sports Betting Prop Secrets Since sportsbooks largely duplicate each other\'s lines, the aforementioned scenario doesn\'t happen as frequently in popular marketplaces like NFL or MLB games these days. However, it still applies to props because there isn\'t a free, central location where books may compare prop odds. Take the case of a recent NFL Draft. One sportsbook had CB Jeffrey Okudah\'s draft position listed as Over/Under 4.5, with the Over priced at +115. A second sportsbook had the same draft position - 4.5 - but listed the Under at +110. The smart bettor realized that he was guaranteed to win with $10 or $15 in this case by betting on either. As stated, finding arbitrage opportunities in the larger markets is harder, but bettors can find them in props markets. Taking Advantage of Line Movements This isn’t the typical arbitrage case, though one could argue that it is indeed an arbitrage bet. This strategy involves waiting for line movements. The problem, of course, is that lines don’t always move in your favor. However, if a line does shift to your advantage, you can place an arbitrage wager. Consider placing a $100 wager on the Cubs at their opening odds of +110. Following intense betting activity, Chicago drops to -115 and their opponent, the Cardinals, rise to +105. The smart bettor now wagers on the Cardinals at +105 and ensures a profit of $5 or $10 regardless of the outcome. To Arbitrage or Not to Arbitrage Should bettors use this strategy. Yes and no. For a few reasons, it will be difficult for the typical bettor to profit significantly from arbitrage. Profit margins are really low. Think about the Rays-Orioles example above. A bettor would need an extreme amount of capital to make the bet. He would also need a sportsbook with a high betting limit. Arbitrage opportunities are so hard to find these days. You won\'t notice significant pricing differences on point spreads or moneylines for the majority of major American sports. That’s because sportsbooks now shift lines on air. That means they alter odds depending on what other shops are doing rather than the action they are taking. Smart bettors can find arbitrage bets on things like MLB player props where the markets are less liquid, but the limits will probably be minimal and it would be challenging to produce a steady stream of winnings. Finally, books hate bettors that engage in this practice. When sportsbooks find out about a bettor engaging in arbitrage, they will typically restrict their betting or e
There are a number of betting mistakes to avoid. Key Points – There are key betting mistakes that must be avoided. – It takes time to learn how to avoid common betting mistakes. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Sports betting is not easy. If it was, everyone would be doing it. Well, it seems like everyone is doing it, but most aren’t winning and that’s the key. Sports bettors ultimately want to win more money. Sportsbooks want to stay in business. There is a fine line between winning and losing and the smart bettor knows that he will face ups and downs, winning streaks and losing streaks. That smart bettor also knows that he needs to stay disciplined and stay on course. To do so means avoiding a number of common betting mistakes. Here, we address those mistakes so that the average bettor can do what they set out to do - win more money. Managing the Bankroll & Unit Size Managing one’s money could be the most important aspect of sports betting. Too often, bettors want to chase losses and increase their unit size to make up for a bad loss. That is a betting mistake to avoid. It all starts with the budget. If $100 per week is your bankroll size, then that’s it. Don’t bet with the mortgage or car payment. Then, follow your rules on unit size. Typically, bettors that are more confident in a pick will wager up to 5 percent of their bankroll. Less confident picks might see a wager of 1 to 2 percent. You should have a rule that you never wager more than 5 percent of your bankroll. The key then is to have the discipline to stick to your money management strategy. This is where too many bettors make their first - and often biggest - mistake. Betting Mistakes - Too Many Bets Sports betting is not a “throw it against the wall and see what sticks” type of activity. The shotgun approach doesn’t work. Too many bettors want to place too many bets thinking that more is better. Betting on 10 or more games per day is likely too much. What ends up happening is that bettors will wager on sports that they really don’t know that much about. That’s a mistake. Keep your daily betting to a few well-researched plays. Find the bets you have the most confidence in and stick to those. You can’t do it all and it wouldn’t be smart to try. EDITOR\'S CHOICE: HOW TO MAKE STRONG BETTING CHOICES Unrealistic Expectations If you are having delusions of grandeur, stop right now. You aren’t going to have a winning percentage of 70 percent in the long run. You aren’t going to hit multiple parlays at +10000. It just isn’t happening. Remember, for a bettor to break even betting at standard odds (-110), the bettor must win 52.38 percent of all bets. Professional bettors will win 55 to 60 percent of the time. Any bettor that thinks they are going to have sustained success better than that is setting themselves up for failure. Dial it down and start slowly. Betting Mistakes to Avoid Reacting to Trends Oddsmakers know that the typical bettor has a bias towards events that have happened recently. A certain team has won ten in a row or a player has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three straight games. It’s the same on the other end too. Bettors will usually fade the team on a five-game losing streak. Smart bettors will see this in an opening line. Take a team like the Packers, a public favorite. Green Bay is coming off three straight wins and opens as a favorite in their next game. Instead of being favored at -7, oddsmakers know that the betting public will wager on Green Bay no matter what. As a result, oddsmakers will open the Packers at -7.5 or even -8. Just because a team is on a certain streak doesn’t mean you should automatically wager on them. Do the research and come up with a strong betting decision for the right reasons. Betting Mistakes - Shoddy Research There has to be a reason why you would take the Yankees -175 or bet on the Dolphins +2.5. Bettors need to do their research in order to make a strong betting decision. It’s not as simple as “Oh, I think they might win.” As mentioned before, start slowly and find your niche. Maybe you only bet on college football until you become more experienced. Plus, keep in mind that doing research takes time and it’s likely that your occupation is not professional bettor. At some point, you will be able to use advanced analytics and stats to your advantage. For now, stick to doing the research you know how to do. The Head Not the Heart “But, I love the Cowboys!” Those would be famous last words after a bettor’s entire bankroll was washed away on a bet that was based on emotion rather than logic. It is a huge mistake to bet with the heart instead of the head. Inexperienced bettors will too often bet with the heart. This is one of the easiest betting mistakes to avoid. You can’t simply bet on your favorite team just because they are your favorite. Bettors that win often will bet against the public on many occasions. The public favors winners, home teams, teams on streaks, teams with star players, historic franchises, and more. But, the betting public loses way too often. That’s why sportsbooks stay in business. Bettors betting their hearts keep sportsbooks in business. Smart bettors learn when it’s right to side with the sportsbook. Remember, they win more often than not. Bettors that can avoid these common betting mistakes will find themselves having success at some point. It won’t come easy. Anything worth it usually does take time. Stick to your sports betting plan and reap the benefits in the end.
SmarterBettor is the go-to site for your top NFL picks. Key Points – Bettors can use SmarterBettor for their top NFL picks. – Understanding the various NFL bets is a key to success. SmarterBettor for Your Top NFL Picks You know and understand the odds of the NFL picks. You know and understand the favorites and underdogs. What you do not know and understand are all the intricacies of the matchup at hand. SmarterBettor has the facts and figures that go into the game. A strong defensive team will carry the UNDER when it goes up against an average offensive.Injuries to key players can have weaknesses in their performances and the head coach can pull the starters out went extending the big lead. All this can add up to a blown cover on the point spread or total line. This instructor has a notebook full of the information you will want to have in your books. NFL success breaks down to the finer details of the game. Understanding the particulars of the game at hand is the edge bettors have over the sportsbooks. ICYMI: HOW TO MAKE STRONG BETTING CHOICES SmarterBettor Guide to Winning Big The point spread and the total line are the preliminary steps needed to bet any NFL game. The money line odds can factor in as well. All these numbers have a purpose in determining a strategy or plan. SmarterBettor has a better way to build on these plans. The touchdown is six points and a success kick after the scoring is one point. The NFL has an option to go with two points after the score. A special play is called using a pass or a run from the two-yard line. The field goal is worth three points. The defense and special teams can also score points in a safety. All of these numbers add up to the way the NFL puts points on the board. SmarterBettor can determine who and what are the proper plans to winning big. The average Joe to the professional handicapper can see how this adds up to a smart idea. A Comprehensive Gameplan for Your Top NFL Picks When tackling the point spread, total line and money line odds in the particular NFL game make you aware of favorites and underdogs. SmarterBettor fans willing to bet on the game also know key numbers in the matchups. If the margin of difference ends up three, six or seven points, you should know that SmarterBettor has a realistic probability of taking of side with a half-point in its favor. You also should know that SmarterBettor is the side with certain facts and figure to prove its point. The SmarterBettor NFL game is a mix of science and art rolled in to one. The one thing in the common is the timely sports betting news all in one place.