Wong teasers are one of those things that come up every now and then in the betting world. One minute they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. The next, well, not so much. Be prepared next time they come up as we look at basic teaser strategy. Key Points – Wong teasers and NFL key numbers go hand in hand. – The most common teaser is the NFL two-team, six-point teaser. The Deal with Key Numbers Before discussing Wong teasers, we need to spend a few minutes discussing key numbers. In each sport, there are winning margins that happen more often than others.  In the NFL, for example, there are some winning margins that happen way more than others. Three points is the most typical scoring margin in an NFL game. Roughly 15 percent of all NFL games are decided by a field goal.  The next most common scoring margin in the NFL is seven points. Seven percent of games end up being decided by a touchdown. This is why 3 and 7 are commonly referred to as key numbers in NFL betting.  Knowing that 15 percent of games are decided by exactly three points and that over 23 percent of games are decided by three points or less is valuable information for an NFL bettor.  There are other key numbers, too. The top-6 most common NFL scoring margins since 2000 are 3, 7, 6, 10, 4, and 14. Games decided by exactly one of those numbers account for 45.71 percent of all games since 2000. This is valuable information, especially for NFL teaser bettors. ICYMI: THE TRUTH ABOUT WAGERING ON SPORTS Teaser Bets A teaser bet is a form of a parlay wager. A parlay is a single bet composed of multiple bets. For example, you bet on two NFL games. You can combine them into a single bet making an NFL parlay. However, both individual bets must be graded as wins for the parlay to win. When betting a teaser, bettors get to adjust the point spread in their favor. There are multiple types of teaser bets, but the most common is the NFL two-team teaser.  A typical two-team NFL teaser might look like the one below. Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 >>> Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5  Baltimore Ravens +2 >>> Baltimore Ravens +8 Notice the original spread for the two teams that we liked. Pittsburgh was a -7.5 favorite. With the six-point teaser, we can adjust the spread to -1.5. Now, the Steelers only have to win by two more points. The same goes for Baltimore, which was a two-point underdog. We adjust the spread to +8 and now the Ravens can either win outright or lose by seven points or less in order to win the bet.  If we combine these bets into a single NFL two-team, six-point teaser, both bets must win in order for the teaser to win. Because of the shifting of point spreads in the bettor’s favor, odds on a two-team teaser are roughly the standard -110. Sometimes, you might find more favorable odds. Sometimes, you won’t. Wong Teasers Defined The term \"Wong teaser\" comes from Stanford Wong\'s book Sharp Sports Betting, which popularized the idea. It can also be known as other things, like a basic strategy teaser.  In a Wong teaser, the spread is moved through the two NFL key numbers of three and seven. For Wong, working through the key numbers is what makes this a top NFL wagering strategy. NFL teaser bettors should seek out favorites between 7.5 and 8.5 or underdogs between 1.5 and 2.5. Here’s why. Look at the example above and take the Steelers. At -7.5, Pittsburgh must win by eight points or more to cover. Winning by eight or more only covers two of the top-6 most common scoring margins - 10 and 14. Those two margins account for about 10.5 percent of all games. If the Steelers are a -1.5 favorite, now they only have to win by two or more points. That would cover all of the top-6 scoring margins. That’s roughly half of all NFL games. Games decided by one point account for just four percent of all NFL matchups. Teasing the spread down to -1.5 gives Pittsburgh (and the bettor) a much better chance of covering. In the grand scheme of things, bettors need to hit just over 72 percent of their bets in order to make 52.4 percent of their teasers. Remember, that’s the number that bettors must hit in order to break even at standard odds (-110). Issues with Wong Teasers Before you get too enthused, keep in mind that a few problems have made it much more difficult to ride the Wong teasers gravy train.  In order to combat the rise of NFL teasers, sportsbooks have first raised the cost of teasers. Books have been extremely cautious in regards to the two-team teasers. It used to be easy to find a price of +100 for two-team teasers after Wong first wrote about them. Now, the typical NFL two-team teaser is priced at -120 in Las Vegas. Many sportsbooks will even go to -130 on NFL teaser bets. It’s still possible to win and make some money betting Wong teasers. They are just more unattractive now due to the additional cost. There is also the issue of finding bets. There are sportsbooks that won’t even accept NFL two-team teasers. If a book feels it is not in the best interest of the operation, they simply will not offer the bet.  Sportsbooks Have Changed the Rules Sportsbooks have reacted to Wong teasers by making it more difficult to find them. Remember, NFL teaser bettors are looking for short underdogs and long favorites.  If point spreads of 7.5 to 8.5 and 1.5 to 2.5 draw in teaser bettors, sportsbooks know this. To combat bettors from finding good teaser bets, bettors simply will not find as many point spreads in those ranges.  Now, those numbers still exist. Finding them requires a watchful eye and the right circumstances to use it in an NFL teaser. Often, when spreads do find themselves in those ranges, they are not there for long as sportsbooks adjust them.  Online sportsbooks have also changed the rules regarding a push. In a two-team teaser, the rules used to be that if one leg of the bet was a push, the entire teaser was a push. That resulted in a bettor getting his bet refunded.  That is not the case anymore. Most sportsbooks now count a win and a push in a two-team teaser as an overall loss. This has discouraged some bettors from attempting to put together two-team teasers.

Every year, millions of people find themselves wagering on sports. It’s fun. It’s exciting and there is the possibility of winning money. That is always a plus. Unfortunately, the majority of bettors are casual gamblers who are unaware of some shocking realities about sports betting.  Key Points – The reality of wagering on sports is that winning percentage by itself doesn’t matter. – Bettors must understand how to read odds and how to find value if they want success. Winning Percentage Means Nothing by Itself  Have you ever seen an ad where a sports betting expert tries to convince you to buy his picks? If you spend time on sports betting sites, you see these handicappers all the time. They make ridiculous claims regarding their winning percentage.  Somebody says they have a 70 percent success rate. Sure, he might have a 70 percent success rate over a week or even a few weeks. In the long run, even the best of the best in the industry only win 55 to 60 percent of the time. The bigger issue is this. It doesn’t matter. Winning percentage in and of itself means absolutely nothing. If you really understand sports betting, you know that you could have a 70 percent winning percentage and be losing money. Likewise, you know that you can pick winners 35 to 40 percent of the time and make some nice cash in the process.  This is one of the biggest fallacies in sports betting. No one wins all the time anyway, but those that are enamored with winning percentage are missing the boat. Let’s say you win 70 percent of the time. The problem is that you like big favorites. I mean they can’t lose, right? Please note the sarcasm there.  Let’s say you like the -1200 moneyline favorite in whatever sport. You choose to wager $1200 in order to win $100. Your outstanding winning percentage of 70 percent means you’ll win seven out of 10 wagers.  When it’s all said and done, instead of having the $12,000 you started with, you’ll have $9,100. Whomp. Whomp. Winning percentage by itself has little value. MUST READ: 5 MUST-KNOW STRATEGIES FOR SPORTS BETTORS & HANDICAPPERS Wagering on Sports Doesn’t Require 60 Percent Win Percentage Speaking of winning percentage, you don\'t need to cover the spread 60% of the time in order to experience wins.  Many amateur sports bettors don\'t consider how many games they need to win in order to break even over the long term. They place wagers based on their level of comfort.  Their bankroll isn\'t separate from their other finances and they don\'t know how to use it. They essentially place bets haphazardly and then wonder why they can’t win just 60 percent of the time. Ask a typical bettor what a good winning percentage is and that bettor will likely say 60 percent (or more). In reality, the best gamblers in the world often don’t come close to winning 60 percent when betting against the spread. The great thing is that they don’t have to. Once again, winning percentage by itself doesn’t matter. Pay Attention to the Vig  Want to win more money betting on sports? Then pay attention to the vig. The vig, or juice, is simply the commission that a sportsbook charges to take a bet.  Bettors can see the vig expressed in betting odds. Standard American odds on a point spread or totals bet are -110. This means that in order for a bettor to win $100 he must put down $110. When the bettor wins, he wins $100 which comes from a losing bettor. The sportsbook keeps $10 from each bet. The book is guaranteed to make money as long as there is equal investment on both sides of a contest. That’s how they stay in business. Here’s a better example. You and another person place wagers at -110 on each side of a bet. The sportsbook collects a total of $220. One side wins the bet and gets the $110 wager back plus winnings of $100. That adds up to $210. The other $10 goes to the book. It doesn’t matter who won. The book always makes money. Breaking Even When Wagering on Sports Why should bettors care about vig? Bettors should be concerned because the vig has an impact on how profitable they can be. You\'ll lose money if you only succeed 50% of the time. When the vig is higher, you need to win even more games in order to break even.  To break even at standard betting odds of -110, you must win 52.38% of the time. 53 out of 100 games won results in a small profit.  Bettors can benefit by getting a lower vig. They don’t have to win as often in order to make a profit. your winning percentage must be lower to make money.  When the juice is -105, bettors only need to win 51.19 percent of the time to break even. Think about it like this. If you wagered $1 million per year at -105 odds instead of -110 odds, you would save $19,000.  Betting $1 million seems like a lot, but if a bettor wagers just $100 per game, that equates to 1,000 games during the course of a year. It might be $1,000 wagers on 100 games. Either way, saving $19,000 is a big deal.  How do you find lower vig? That’s easy. You shop for it. There are tons of sportsbooks in the industry and they all feature different pricing. You can use two or three sportsbooks in order to find the best prices. It’s like going to fill up your car with gas. There are five gas stations within a few miles of your house. They all have the same product but at different prices.  You Can Win Wagering on Sports Here’s one that not many people believe. Anyone can make money betting on sports. It’s like anything. It takes time and energy to create successful betting systems.  Anyone who is willing to put in the effort can become a successful sports bettor with the variety of tools and information that are currently available.  The majority of people are simply unwilling to do so.   Be Careful Buying Picks Too often, bettors want to put their fate in the hands of others. With the rise of sports betting, there has been growth in both the sportsbook and sports handicapping industries. Like any industry, there are some great ones, and there are some duds. If you can put in the time necessary to handicap your own games, you may not need a handicapper. You definitely don’t need a handicapper if you are a small stakes bettor. Why pay for handicapper’s picks? Picks cost money and usually the cost of picks will eat up all the winnings of smaller stakes bettors. If it makes financial sense and the handicapper shows a propensity for winning some big bets, by all means invest the money. If you’re just too lazy to handicap on your own, you need to be careful when buying picks.

If there is one thing that every sports bettor and handicapper knows, it’s that the game can be challenging. The way to be successful in this field is to keep up with the changing trends and use a strategy or two (or more) to ensure your bets consistently hit their marks. At its core, winning at sports betting requires knowledge, discipline, practice and understanding of your own skills and limitations. This article will provide a comprehensive overview of five must-know strategies for sports bettors. Whether you’re looking to improve existing strengths or start from scratch, use these tips to enhance your success.  Key Points – Some strategies for sports bettors are very easy to follow and lead to success. – Bettors should never chase their losses. Understand the Basic Strategies for Sports Bettors  An understanding of the basics is essential for any successful sports bettor. Learning how to read betting lines is where it all begins. Knowing a good bit about the sport you are betting on helps as well. Bettors can make more informed decisions with more knowledge. More knowledge allows experienced sports bettors to develop a plan of action that can be applied while placing bets. Having an effective strategy can help create profitability over the long term. Keep in mind that predicting outcomes is hard even when using these strategies and bettors must be prepared to manage their losses as well. ICYMI: HOW TO BET ON BASEBALL IN 2023 Compare Different Sportsbooks\' Odds  It’s no different than searching for who has the best gas prices in your area. If you can find the same product for a few cents per gallon cheaper, you choose the savings. It’s the same for bettors.  Sports bettors who want to increase their chances of success should definitely take the time to study the odds and compare different sportsbooks. By doing so, they can find the best value when making a wager.  Taking a look at each sportsbook’s odds page can help you determine which offers you the most favorable terms. Looking out for various price boosts. The best sportsbook bonuses can also improve your experience as a sports bettor.  In the long run, your savings adds up and line shopping becomes one of your most powerful strategies for sports bettors.  Strategies for Sports Bettors - Use Stats and Trends  A successful sports bettor knows that the best way to increase his chances at success is through handicapping. Handicapping involves using advanced online sportsbook betting analytics. These can help bettors make informed decisions when placing wagers.  This type of strategy is extremely useful for bettors looking to maximize their profits. It helps narrow down fields of potential opportunities in order to take advantage of value and improve the chances of making a profit. Not only does handicapping provide the ability to estimate the likelihood of a certain outcome, it also allows bettors to track and analyze historical data which can be used when formulating strategies for future bets.  With proper research, understanding and application of analytics, this method can help you gain an edge over other sports bettors. Among strategies for sports bettors, using stats and trends lends itself to a more successful betting experience. Don’t Chase Losses When it comes to sports betting, it is essential to develop a mastered strategy before you place your bets. Beyond the games or teams, there are many strategies that can help you be successful when placing bets.  One of the most important strategies to keep in mind is to never bet more money than you can afford to lose. Never, ever get caught up in chasing losses.  Picking carefully and setting goals on how much money you are about to commit will help guide your decisions and enable you to win big when the conditions are right. Most importantly, it will also protect you from financial ruin by always having a fallback plan.  Every step should be taken with caution as investing recklessly could have consequences. Consider your options wisely every time and remind yourself that winnings should never be taken for granted. Easy Strategies for Sports Bettors - Take Breaks  Sports betting can be an exciting and rewarding activity for some. For others, it is extremely frustrating. It’s always helpful to know these betting mistakes to avoid. Knowing can help bettors make the most of their game days. helps to have a sound strategy in mind if you want to make the most out of your game day.  One of the lesser-talked about elements of sports betting strategies is taking breaks. Think about those times when you feel overcome with emotions. Taking a break from betting allows you to realign your goals and remain in control of your emotions.  Betting on emotion is not advised by any serious sports bettor.  Doing so can lead to more strategic and profitable decision-making down the line. Keeping things in perspective is essential to any serious sports bettor’s success.  Make sure to take a quick breather whenever you start feeling overwhelmed or exhausted. It\'ll pay off both emotionally and financially. The Final Word All in all, successful betting requires discipline, knowledge, and strategy. Understanding the basics of sports betting is the first step to success.  Develop your knowledge of the sport you\'re betting on and read through the lines carefully. Compare different sportsbook offerings to get the best value.  Use stats, trends, and previous game results to make informed decisions when placing your bets. Always remember to choose wisely and never bet more than you can afford to lose. It\'s recommended that when faced with overwhelming emotions or exhaustion, it’s best to take a break from betting.  Taking breaks helps keep things in perspective and allows you to become fully aware of any potential risks. With the right strategies for sports bettors in place, anyone can make smart wagers that will provide benefits in the long run. 

If you are looking to bet on baseball in 2023, you have come to the right place. Smarter bettors have developed a number of strategies that pay off big dividends. In this article, we focus on just a few tips that make 2023 a baseball betting success. Key Points – To bet on baseball this season, bettors should consider a few strategies. – The ability to recognize reverse line movement can help your baseball betting. Baseball Betting in 2023  Unlike basketball and football, baseball is a moneyline sport. The majority of NFL wagers, for example, are made on the point spread. Although possible, point spread bets - known as run line bets - in baseball are less prevalent.  Moneyline bets are easy to understand. Bettors wager on a favorite or an underdog. According to the odds, the favorite is more likely to win. Remember that when you wager on the favorite, your profits are likely to be less than your initial stake.  A greater payoff will normally be offered if you win an underdog wager. All of this is based on the moneyline odds for a certain game.  The point spread is another option available to MLB bettors. The spread, or run line in baseball, is usually set at 1.5 runs. The odds on the favorite and underdog will vary.  Baseball totals bets allow players to wager on the Over or Under. The final cumulative score is predicted by bettors to go Over or Under a predetermined limit specified by oddsmakers.  Another noteworthy aspect of baseball is the extensive schedule of games. There are many opportunities for wiseguys and casual bettors alike to strengthen their edge because there are 2,430 regular-season games played in a season.  Here is some baseball betting advice for this season.  EDITOR’S CHOICE: THE MARIA STAKING STRATEGY Bet on Baseball - Avoid Big Favorites The average bettor favors favorites. The oddsmakers are aware of this and take advantage of it. The general public will place bets on teams like the Yankees or Dodgers whether they are given odds of -150 or -175.  As a result, some favorites may become expensive. It would be advisable for bettors to avoid them. Since 2005, MLB regular season favorites with odds of -150 or more have won around 63% of their games.  That indicates that the favorites lost 37% of the time. Spending $175 on a favorite to win $100 and lose can rapidly add up. You run the risk of losing a lot of money because you are continually laying a negative number.  The payments are small when favorites prevail. At -275, you might believe that the Yankees are a lock. You staked $275 and received $100. If the Yankees lose, you lose a lot of money. When they win, you win a relatively small amount. In learning to bet on baseball, skip the big MLB favorites. Find other bets that offer more value. You can CLICK HERE to read more about the challenges of betting baseball on Opening Day. The Plus-Money Underdog  Sports bettors should be aware that they must win 52.4 percent of the time in order to break even at standard (-110) odds. By betting on underdogs, bettors can win at a rate lower than 50% and still come out ahead.  On any given day\'s slate, there are some formidable underdogs. Consider placing three $100 wagers on underdogs with odds of +120, +150, and +170. A $300 investment yields $540 in return. However, picking underdogs at random is not a good strategy. But if you do your research, you can locate ones that are reasonably priced and have a chance to win.  Fade the Public When You Bet on Baseball Betting against the public is not a novel concept. It makes sense to wager against the public because they lose the majority of the time. The typical bettor bets based on instinct. Favorite teams, home teams, well-known brands, and teams with great players are things they look for regularly.  Another factor that influences public bettors is recency bias. If a team performed well in their previous game, they will bet on them. Likewise, they will fade teams that played poorly in the prior game.  By betting against the public, bettors can benefit from exaggerated odds and skewed public opinion. An added benefit is to position oneself next with the book. We all know the house always wins.  Since 2007, if an MLB bettor had placed bets on the games that had the most action and won bets on underdogs that received less than 40% of all moneyline bets, they would have won about 44% of the time. They would have won big too because of the plus-money odds. Look for Reverse Line Movement  Baseball involves more than just selecting short favorites and plus-money underdogs. Bettors need to pay attention to what experienced bettors are doing. One of the greatest ways to recognize sharp - or professional - action is to look for reverse line movement (RLM). This happens when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of the way it should move.  Let\'s use the Cubs at -150 playing the Brewers (+130) as an example. A full 75% of the moneyline bets go to Chicago, yet the Cubs\' line drops to -135 while the Brewers\' line has adjusted to +115.  Why would the bookies alter the odds in the public\'s favor while betting on the Cubs? It’s because professional bettors intervened and placed some sizable bets on the Brewers.  This may be a situation where you consider paying for handicapper’s picks. Most cappers will offer their reasoning behind their picks. This may help you learn more about reverse line movement.  Since 2005, MLB teams (favorites as well as underdogs) which got less than 35% of the moneyline bets and had a reverse line movement of at least one penny won 44% of the time. If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or more, the situation improves considerably more.  How to Bet on Baseball in 2023 Divisional Dogs In MLB, divisional teams play each other 13 times per season. Playing a team so frequently fosters some familiarity. That benefits the underdog.  In games played outside of the division since 2005, underdogs have lost a total of around 645 units. In divisional games, betting on underdogs would have netted a loss of about 70 units. That’s a significant difference.  Baseball bettors have even more options for picking divisional underdogs. Road divisional underdogs, especially in games with totals of 8.5 or higher, tend to do very well for bettors. A road divisional underdog offers value to bettors because the general public tends to overvalue home teams. Since 2005, wagering on road divisional underdogs in games with high totals has resulted in profits of more than 70 units.

This is how to use the Maria Staking strategy. Key Points – The Maria Staking Strategy is a bankroll management plan for success. – The strategy may or may not work in betting on various sports. The Maria Staking Strategy - How It Works When you start betting on sports, you start looking for different strategies that will help you win more. You figure out pretty quickly that winning more bets doesn’t always guarantee winning more money. Bettors also figure out that learning how to manage their money is one of the keys to increasing the size of one’s bankroll. One of the plans you might come across is the Maria Staking Strategy. It really isn’t a betting strategy as much as it is a money management plan.  The whole concept comes from an online figure known as Maria Santonix. She is credited with popularizing this strategy. It is reported that took a bankroll of 3,000 British pounds and turned it into 100,000 pounds in a little over ten months.  While all of her wagers were on horses, the strategy could be used in other sports. She never did disclose how she chose which horses to back, but did offer that she had some connections in the racing industry. Regardless, what transpired was something outstanding. Here, we lay out what was done and how the Maria Staking Strategy works. MUST READ: NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING FACTORS THAT ARE OVERHYPED The Plan The Maria Staking strategy works like this. Bettors will wager a predetermined portion of their total bankroll on each individual bet. The odds associated with each bet are what determine the amount of the bet.  This plan was developed in the U.K. where decimal odds are most frequently used. Here, we will use American odds to explain the strategy.  Here is how it all works. When the odds on a wager are +250 or shorter, bettors will stake 1 percent of their bankroll. With $1,000 bankroll, the bet is $10.  Now, if the odds are +260 to +640, the wager shrinks to 0.6 percent of the bankroll. With the $1,000 bankroll, that wager would be $6.  For bets with odds of +650 to +1000, the wager is 0.4 percent. Using our example of $1,000 bankroll, the corresponding bet would be $4. The other part of the strategy is that the bets will adjust as the bankroll adjusts. Knowing when to adjust your betting unit size is difficult for bettors. This strategy makes it easy.  If the bankroll grows, the amounts that you wager will also grow proportionately. When the odds are +250 or shorter, you still bet 1 percent, but the amount of the wager will be different because the size of the bankroll is different.  There is an exception. The amount of the bets will not decrease until a player’s bankroll has shrunk to a level that is 65 percent of the initial amount. We look at an example next. Maria Staking Strategy Example Most bettors, especially inexperienced ones, are not likely to begin their sports betting journey with 3,000 dollars, pounds, or whatever currency. They will probably start with something much lower. For the sake of example, we will use 1,000 units, which could be dollars, pounds, euros, or any currency.  We begin with $1,000 and we will place our first wager on a bet at +200. That means we will stake 1 percent or $10. Let’s say we win the first bet. We profit $20 which gets added back to the bankroll. The bankroll is now $1,020.  Our next bet is one at +300. That means we will wager 0.6 percent of our new bankroll of $1,020. That’s a $6.12 bet. Let’s say we lose that bet. The bankroll goes down to $1,013.88. For our third bet, we find a great underdog at +600. Using the Maria Staking strategy, that means we will risk 0.4 percent of our bankroll ($1,013.88). We put $4.06 on our underdog.  When the underdog wins, we profit $24.36. That, of course, gets added back to the bankroll and leaves us with $1,038.24. And, the cycle continues. The Maria Staking Strategy - How It Works The Exception Like any rule, there are some exceptions. With the initial bankroll of $1,000, your bets would be $10, $6, and $4 depending upon the odds. If you lose the first bet, these wagers remain $10, $6, and $4.  In fact, those bets will remain the same even if your bankroll keeps decreasing. Those wagers only change if your bankroll gets to 65 percent - or $650 - of the initial amount. If you can avoid these habits of the losing sports bettor, it may not come to this. However, if it does, you have a strategy. If your bankroll falls below $650, your betting amounts will change. You will still use the 1.0, 0.6, and 0.4 percent numbers. The bets would change to $6.50 for bets with odds at +250 or shorter, $3.90 for those with odds between +260 and +640, and $2.60 for bets with odds of +650 to +1000. Can You Attain Success with the Maria Staking Strategy Like many betting strategies, the answer probably depends upon certain factors. A big factor is the sport you wager on. The namesake of this strategy bet only on horses. When betting on horses, you often find odds higher than +250. Betting on nightly NBA games, it would become pretty risky betting only on underdogs on the moneyline. The other key thing to remember is that this is simply a money management strategy. Nowhere in this plan is there anything about picking winners. At some point, you have to become adept at picking winners and doing so at least half the time. At plus-money odds, you can get away with losing more often, but you have to win at some point to increase the bankroll. If you are considering using this strategy, think of it this way. It’s like following a diet plan. The plan lays out how many calories you should eat for the day. Maybe it even breaks up how much to eat at each meal. However, nowhere in the diet does it tell you exactly what to eat.  The Maria Staking strategy can lessen exposure to risk and prevent bettors from chasing losses. Keep in mind that she didn’t bet on anything over +1000. Bettors that can find a way to pick consistent winners can find a way to grow their bankroll using this strategy.

NCAA tournament betting factors that are overhyped. Key Points – Casual bettors overhype a number of NCAA tournament betting factors.  – Smart bettors do not fall for the hype. NCAA Tournament Betting Factors That Are Overhyped Every year when the NCAA Tournament comes around, several factors are mentioned that have a significant impact on the event’s outcome. Some of the factors are actually very important. Other factors are deemed important by the betting public, but in reality they are not. The ability to identify elements that don\'t truly have a big impact on any game’s outcome is a characteristic shared by smarter bettors. It helps them avoid early March Madness betting mistakes. There are six NCAA tournament betting factors that are just ridiculously overhyped. We examine each below. Travel Every year, as soon as the bracket is announced, you\'ll hear all kinds of comments about the teams that have to endure grueling travel. Teams from the west and east coasts will have to travel across the country to play in their respective brackets. Big deal. Too many bettors will make assumptions regarding the effects and potential unfairness of travel. It’s really not that important. Between their final conference tournament game and their opening tournament game, teams typically have at least three days off. Some will have more. Teams travel all season long. Traveling across time zones is nothing new for teams that have done it all year. The best part of the tournament for first round winners is that they stay in the same hotel and don’t have to travel to play in their second game.  If they advance to the Sweet Sixteen, they will have four to five days off before they travel again. This is exactly what they do during the season. Public bettors will put way too much emphasis on traveling during the NCAA tournament. The one time when travel might play a small role in handicapping an NCAA tournament game is with teams that qualify for March Madness and must play in a play-in game. Play-in games are held on Tuesday and Wednesday before the first round begins on Thursday. All play-in games are in Dayton, Ohio. That means a team could play in Ohio on Tuesday and have to play less than 48 hours later on the West coast. That’s not ideal, but in most cases, travel during the tournament is way overvalued. ICYMI: HANDICAPPING TEAMS DOWN 0-2 IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS NCAA Tournament Betting Factors - Player Out Every year, a few well-known athletes are forced to sit out one or more NCAA tournament games due to a variety of circumstances. The most common reason is injuries.  Public bettors will almost always overreact to a star player being out for a tournament game. Take a team that will play without its leading scorer. The public will fade that team as a result Those casual bettors fail to look at what the team did during the season without that player. A team might have great depth. Too often, the public overlooks other factors that can influence the outcome of a March Madness game.  Yes, it’s true that most teams will regress some when a starter is out. The level of that regression usually isn’t as great as public bettors think. It is another NCAA tournament betting factor that bettors put too much emphasis on. Coaching History You see these types of games all the time. A coach has a team in the tournament and is playing the school that he used to coach at a few years prior. Maybe he was an assistant at the opposing school. How about when a coach is a finalist for another job and isn’t given the opportunity? Now, he’s facing that team that overlooked him in the NCAA tournament. These are just a few of the many different coaching storylines that fans will see in the NCAA tournament. The problem is that recreational bettors get caught up in the media frenzy. The media hypes these stories and bettors factor them into their betting decisions.  This is not smart. There are too many other NCAA tournament betting factors to analyze prior to making betting decisions. https://www.youtube.com/live/dFbRTiCc3OU?feature=share Conference Strength This happens every year. The Big 12 or the ACC is the “best” conference in basketball, according to all the experts. The public will then buy into the hype and overvalue 19-12 teams from these conferences that make the tournament. The problem with conference strength is that the conference doesn’t play the tournament games. The individual teams do. Sure, playing great competition all season long can bring out the best in a team.  The truth is that teams from strong conferences can struggle against weaker competition. Ask Virginia, a No. 1 seed in the 2018 NCAA tournament. The Cavaliers, from the ACC, became the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round game in the tournament.  Looking into the relative strengths of each conference is usually a waste of time for college basketball handicappers. There are too many other NCAA tournament betting factors that are directly related to outcomes. Conference Tournament Play Another one that public bettors buy into is the team that won four or five games to win its respective conference tournament. Yes, teams will often carry some momentum into March Madness. UConn was the No. 9 seed in the 2011 Big East tournament. The Huskies would win the conference tournament then go on to win a national championship as a No. 3 seed. That is an outlier. It doesn\'t really matter how well a college basketball team did at its conference tournament.  There are times when a conference tournament victor will struggle during the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament due to a lack of focus and effort. In contrast, occasionally a team will turn things around and play well in the NCAA tournament after having a bad conference tournament performance.  Sometimes, teams will lose early in their conference tournament and then benefit from having the extra time off. There are just too many other factors involved to draw conclusions based on conference tournament play alone. NCAA Tournament Betting - Past Tourneys Smart bettors stay away from this one. Public bettors will put too much stock in how teams have done in the NCAA tournament in the past. For example, a certain team won its first tournament game nine out of the last ten years. Another has lost its last five Sweet Sixteen games.  Very few of the players on a current team had anything to do with some of the past tournament performances. Every season brings a new team, a new chemistry, and new results.  Considering past tournament performances is one of the big mistakes that bettors make when engaging in NCAA tournament betting. It’s one of the sports betting traps to avoid. 

How to handicap teams down 0-2 in the NBA playoffs. Key Points – There are a number of considerations when betting the NBA playoffs on a team down 0-2. – Just because a team is down 0-2 in the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t worth betting on. Handicapping Teams Down 0-2 in the NBA Playoffs Losing the first two games of a playoff series is the absolute worst thing an NBA team wants to happen. They fall into a hole from which it may be challenging to climb out. An 0-2 hole is not the end of the world, but it is extremely hard to come back from.  Many NBA teams down 0-2 will fold and be eliminated quickly from the postseason. Others use the fear of elimination as a motivator. The trick for NBA bettors is to figure out which kind of team they are betting on in this situation. Plus, bettors shouldn’t forget about betting NBA totals. Doing so can be rewarding for the smart bettor. When handicapping teams down 0-2 in the NBA playoffs, it’s important to take these following factors into account. Location It’s worth noting where the losses occurred. In the NBA playoffs, the first two games are always at the home of the higher seed. It’s rare that a higher-seeded home team loses the first two games of any playoff series. However, it has happened.  More often, the visiting team loses the first two games of a playoff series. Visiting teams down 0-2 realize their situation. Not many teams that go down 3-0 ever come back to win a series.  Home teams that lose the first two games on their own court are in an even more difficult situation. They are faced with winning at least one game on the opponent’s home floor in order to send the series back to their home court for Games 5 and 7. Where the losses occur, in this case, matters as they can affect the overall psyche of a team. MOST RECENT: THE CHALLENGES OF BETTING BASEBALL ON OPENING DAY Identical NBA Playoffs Losses Not all losses are created equal. A team can lose a game in many different ways. When handicapping teams down 0-2, it would be preferable for a team to have lost both games under different circumstances.  Maybe a team shot poorly but was still able to hang in the game only to lose in the last minute. It’s possible a key player suffered an injury at some point in the game and didn’t return. That player’s presence may have been the difference.  If a team lost both games in the same fashion - say they struggled shooting the ball - that would be a cause for concern. It could mark a longer-term trend. Smart bettors would want to use this as they figure out how to bet on the next game (if they bet at all). The point here is that it’s worth looking at how the team lost its first two games.  Statistical Performance Bettors should take a look at a team’s statistical performances in those first two games. Are they meeting their expectations? Are they struggling in an area where they don’t normally have issues? If a team is struggling, bettors should examine it further to decide whether the situation is likely to improve or not. For example, an 0-2 team has shot poorly in both of the first two games. Upon review, the reason for the shooting lapse was the outstanding defense by the opponent. That is more telling than a team simply missing a lot of open jump shots.  A team may have scored the majority of its points in the paint. Once you examine it deeper, you find out that the opposition was missing its top interior defender for the first two games due to injury. He is expected to play in Game 3. That will likely make a huge difference in the game’s outcome. The idea here is to determine whether or not what has happened in the first two games is likely to continue or change. That will help bettors handicap these games.  https://youtu.be/j9StQ8SVDGc Best Players in NBA Playoffs Every NBA team has its best players. Have those players played up to their capabilities? Every NBA player has bad games, even star players.  Basketball is very much a team sport, but the stars of the team will set the tone for all of their teammates. If they aren\'t playing well, bettors should take a look at things like how the opposition is matching up against them. It’s also worth checking the star players\' health, their postseason performance history, their recent form, and even their body language on the court.  Public Response One of the best things bettors can do in a situation like this is take a look at how the public is reacting. When a series gets off to a slow start, the public will often act as though the world has ended.  They will write off the team that is down 0-2 and develop a doomsday mentality. There are other times when dropping the first two games of a series won’t change anything. It might be a popular team that is returning to its home court. The public will continue to bet on them. The best NBA bettors will always be aware of what the general public thinks and how it affects the way the lines are set and any line movement. Big line moves are a big deal. Smart bettors track this movement and use it to their advantage.

The challenges of betting baseball on Opening Day. Key Points – You will never know less about an MLB team during a season than you will on Opening Day. – The public makes baseball betting even harder on Opening Day. The Challenges of Betting Baseball on Opening Day Opening Day is an amazing day for baseball bettors and fans. It is a time when everything is fresh and still attainable. In addition, it marks the conclusion of an offseason that seemed to drag on for months. Weren’t we just watching numerous games every day? Opening day, however, can present some special obstacles for bettors who aren\'t watchful. That can be expensive if you aren\'t thinking about them. Here are a number of issues that present a challenge when betting baseball on Opening Day. Heavy Public Betting Public betting is substantial at the beginning of every MLB season. The season opener is a major event for public bettors, or those that really don’t know much about baseball betting. Public bettors like to wager on favorites, popular teams, and teams with popular players. These bettors don’t pay much attention to strategy. The average bettor should know how the betting public affects lines and odds. It’s one of the habits of the losing sports bettor to avoid. In most seasons, very little betting interest will be seen for a midweek game in April. But, MLB Opening Day will bring in a lot of cash. These public bettors will bet primarily on emotion because they have little else to fall back on and no other games to draw inspiration from.  This implies that public favorites will attract a significant portion of bets and that big-name pitchers and free agents will be overbet. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros are popular favorites and will see tons of betting action. So much so, that these public teams will often be overpriced on Opening Day. Baseball bettors should consider this before placing any Opening Day bets. MUST READ: EARLY MARCH MADNESS BETTING MISTAKES Opening Day Baseball Betting Generates Big Crowds Opening Day is a major event in many MLB cities. Teams will typically sell out for their home opener. By mid April, the stands are nowhere near Opening Day levels as the novelty of a new season wears off.  Playing at home is often an advantage on Opening Day because of the size of the crowds. Sportsbooks will often bake that into their odds as well. Smart bettors know this as they look for value in Opening Day baseball bets.  Pre-Game Is Hard on Starting Pitchers Teams will often hold a ceremony to bring in the new season on Opening Day. Such ceremonies have a propensity to linger on and that affects both teams and their pre-game preparations. The starting pitchers for either team may find that difficult. They will be warming up through the ceremony. They may have to change their warm-up routine if the ceremony takes too long. Some pitchers won\'t care, but there are enough guys that rely on their pre-game routine. Any deviation from it messes with their head. MLB games typically start at the time they are supposed to begin. If it says 7:08, the umpire is usually saying “Play ball!” right at 7:08. Still, some pitchers will be thrown off because of all the hoopla surrounding an Opening Day celebration. Even a brief delay before the start of a game can throw some pitchers off their game.  Pitching Rest Teams aim to have their starting pitching rotations in order going into the first game, with their aces prepared to pitch on Opening Day. That doesn’t always happen. Pitchers can be thrown off of their regular rest.  Sometimes, the spring training schedule gets messed up and an ace pitcher might need an extra day or two of rest before he takes the mound. Or, a pitcher might get the extra rest without needing it. Some pitchers actually do not manage extra rest very well. They like routine.  Bettors like routine as well. This is why they should be getting ready to bet MLB spring training right now. This can be true for some position players too. They get used to the routine of playing almost every day and then they get a few days off before Opening Day. That can be detrimental in some cases. Betting Baseball on Young Players on Opening Day Guys that haven’t been there before don’t know what to expect. Young players can be particularly anxious on Opening Day. It is a really important occasion for players who are new to the league or who were called up for the first time in the middle of the season last year.  It’s something young players have been looking forward to for a long time. The thrill and excitement of Opening Day can have a dramatic effect on players’ performances.  Even in the best cases, it might be difficult to predict what to expect from young players. In these situations, it may be even more difficult to believe that a young player will be able to reach his full potential.  The Challenges of Betting Baseball on Opening Day Lack of Information Almost no information exists for the baseball handicapper. Baseball betting is all about analyzing the past and figuring out what it signifies for the future. There is no past on Opening Day, at least none that is really significant.  You can\'t rely on anything from the previous season to effectively forecast what will happen on Opening Day.  Teams undergo roster changes and you know nothing of how a team will play in the new season.  That doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on Opening Day. It just means you should be extremely careful. You need a solid justification for placing a bet. You will never know less about MLB teams heading into the regular season than you will on Opening Day. That is the challenge!

Avoid these early March Madness betting mistakes. Key Points  – Avoid early March Madness betting mistakes like betting with your heart. – Seeding and game location can influence March Madness outcomes. Early March Madness Betting Mistakes The best time of year for betting on college basketball, and arguably all sports, is during the NCAA Tournament. It can also be a highly pricey time of year if you\'re not attentive.  If you fall for some of the early March Madness betting mistakes, you might easily end up placing too many losing bets. College basketball lines are tighter come tournament time compared to the regular season. Plus, public action has a significant impact on those lines.  There are a number of March Madness betting mistakes that too many bettors make. Here is a look at the biggest ones and how you might prevent them.  March Madness Betting Mistakes - Emotion The NCAA tournament is one of the most thrilling sporting events of each year. It is easy to get caught up in all of the hoopla, the passion of the tournament. There will be upsets, close games, and every game will be on TV.   It is very easy to bet on games entirely based on emotion. Smart bettors know that this is a recipe for disaster.  Maintaining context is crucial in this case while discussing March Madness.  For the average college basketball bettor, betting on March Madness is actually easier than a typical regular season Saturday. At the most, a max of 32 teams are playing on one day (Day 1 and 2 of the tournament). That makes it easier for bettors to handicap games and avoid March Madness betting mistakes. Each game also receives far more attention than they would if it was the regular season. Bettors find it simpler than ever to find reliable information. When you think about it, handicapping tournament games isn\'t actually all that difficult. Stay away from betting on emotion. MOST RECENT: GETTING READY TO BET MLB SPRING TRAINING Buying on Name Recognition Too often, bettors go for the names that they have heard or seen frequently on TV. At tournament time, there are always games with top-seeded teams playing opponents from lesser-known conferences.  The betting public almost always leans toward name recognition. Just like betting on emotion, this can lead to too many losses. In the first two rounds of March Madness, there are always upsets. This is one of those sports betting traps to avoid. An upset would be considered a team that is seeded at least two spots below its opponent and pulling off the win. For example, a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 seed would not be considered an upset. A No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed would be considered an upset.  There are usually a dozen upsets in any given tournament. That’s why it pays to do the homework and find betting value rather than bet on name recognition. There are too many instances where a lower-seeded team has enough talent and more motivation than a higher-seeded opponent. Speaking of Seeds When filling out their bracket, a person who does not follow college basketball a lot during the season is generally going to select the higher seeded teams to defeat the lower seeds. Again, this is another recipe for losing bets. Consider the recent winning percentages of No. 12 seeds in their first-round games. A No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5  seed 53 times since the NCAA tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985.  That’s nearly 36 percent of all No. 5-No. 12 games. For instance, a middle of the pack team from a big conference is frequently more likely to receive a respectable high seeding than the undisputed champion of a smaller mid-major. Although seeds are one method used by sports bettors to evaluate the relative strength of teams, they are far from being a reliable source of information.  One of the March Madness betting mistakes is not searching for these undervalued underdogs. The NCAA tournament will almost always seed a middle-of-the-pack major conference team higher than a mid-major conference champion.  Early March Madness Betting Mistakes Location, Location, Location Despite the fact that all NCAA Tournament games are, in theory, played at neutral venues, some of those locations are undoubtedly much more neutral than others. While some teams must fly across the country, some will play just a few hours from their school. Some may even play on their home court.  If the game is close enough for fans to travel in large numbers, the venue can have a significant impact on the result. The teams with a national presence must also be taken into consideration. Teams like Duke or North Carolina, for instance, enjoy a sizable support base in the stands wherever they play due to their widespread appeal. A basketball game\'s outcome can be directly and unavoidably impacted by a highly biased crowd\'s impact on the officials.  March Madness Betting Mistakes - Ignoring the Competition During March Madness, it frequently doesn\'t matter which team is better or more talented. Every team will be as prepared and focused as they can be. Thus, the most crucial factor is not what the team can achieve, but rather the matchup with their opponent.  Too many bettors don’t look at the matchup. If you want to win more, avoid these habits of the losing sports bettor. Winning bettors need to look at how well a team is set up to limit what their opponent does best. They should also look to see if an opponent can take advantage of any flaws a team might have.  There may also be something a team does that an opponent hasn’t seen before. That can give teams problems. When you haven’t practiced or played a team that does something unique, it can take most of a game to get used to. On the other hand, games can get ugly if the lesser opponent is unable to offset the stronger team\'s advantage in height, length, agility, or shooting ability. In summary, college basketball handicappers must be aware that in the tournament, matchups are essential.

How to get ready to bet MLB spring training. Key Points – There is money to be made when you bet on MLB spring training. – Find value before you bet MLB spring training. Getting Ready to Bet MLB Spring Training Baseball bettors find spring training to be an exciting time of year. Baseball\'s preseason is far more intense than those of other sports because they take it much more seriously. That’s good news for bettors since it’s more attractive for people to bet MLB spring training.  There is a big difference, though, in betting on spring training and the MLB regular season. If you try and place bets in March the same way you do in August, you are going to run into some serious issues. If you want to have success when you bet MLB spring training, here’s a list of things you should consider first. MUST READ: 2023 STANLEY CUP FUTURES UPDATE The Best Aren’t Always the Best The top teams in MLB aren’t always the best spring training teams.  MLB teams that are on track to have successful seasons occasionally aren\'t all that strong in the spring. There are also teams that do extremely well in the spring but falter during the regular season. There have been times when success in the spring does translate into regular season success. In 2010, the San Francisco Giants had the best record in the Cactus League in spring training. The Giants went on to win the World Series. The team the Giants beat - the Texas Rangers - were actually the worst team in the Grapefruit League during the spring. The bottom line is this. Don’t put too much stock into how a team performed the year before. Don’t put too much into how a team is projected to do during the regular season. Those things will have little bearing on what will transpire in spring training. Offseason Changes Take Time When You Bet MLB Spring Training Changes can take a while to become permanent. During the offseason, baseball teams will sometimes completely restructure their rosters. A team could sign a number of new players that would make their outlook the next season seem extremely favorable.  However, chemistry is a crucial component in baseball. It might take some time for new players to warm up to one another. It may take a while for them to get used to playing with one another.  Therefore, a change that appears to have a lot of potential for success might not be effective until later in the MLB season. These new additions may prove to be outstanding moves, but not until later in a season. That’s okay for the teams involved, but not so much when you bet the MLB spring training. Veterans Hate the Spring MLB veterans hate spring training. The baseball season is incredibly long. Teams play 162 regular season contests for the chance to potentially play 22 more postseason games.  Players will play almost every day for more than six months. Before that all starts, players must complete around 30 spring training games. That’s a game a day for a month. What motivates teams and players is one of the biggest betting mistakes to avoid. It is not surprising that many seasoned players are not overly enthusiastic about games in March. The likelihood that a club will be at ease in the spring increases with the number of MLB veterans it has, provided those veterans aren\'t competing for starting positions.  Competition for Jobs Creates Success Success can be fueled by competition for positions. This is the opposite of the last point. When teams have younger players at positions where they are fighting for a starting job, that competition creates more success in spring training. When you bet MLB spring training, you will look for these types of teams to back. It could be veteran players too. They may have landed with a new team and have to battle with a couple players for the opportunity to start during the regular season. Players fighting for a job will work extremely hard during spring training. That will affect how many of the exhibition games turn out. https://youtu.be/0dfHrDwIgPg Bet MLB Spring Training - Pitching Starting pitchers are far less significant in the spring. In the regular season, starting pitchers make up the majority of most bettors’ strategy. Starting pitchers will only throw a few innings, especially early in the spring. They are typically not at their best either.  Understanding this can help you choose MLB exhibition games to bet on. Scheduling Doesn’t Matter The spring training playing schedule doesn’t matter. During the regular season, bettors spend  a lot of time considering how the schedule will affect things. Bettors look at things such as how long a road trip will be, whether clubs will have days off, and so forth.  In the spring, This just isn\'t relevant. Most teams play every day, so rest doesn\'t really matter. Fatigue is not an issue because it is still very early in the season and rosters are very deep. Plus, travel isn’t an issue. All of the ballparks in Arizona’s Cactus League, for example, are accessible by car within an hour. Be Patient There will always be betting opportunities in spring training. The most important thing to keep in mind is that you must be a patient baseball handicapper. The spring could be a good time to work on your money management skills and when to adjust your betting unit size. There are plenty of regular season games to come, so there is no need to wipe out the bank account before you really need to. Bet MLB spring training when there is value. When there isn’t, skip it. Don’t force yourself into less than ideal circumstances.