Let’s get into some 2022 NFL Win Totals.
A look at Odds for 2022 NFL Win Totals
One of the most popular NFL futures bets for the upcoming season is on a team’s projected win total for the 17-game schedule. Now that we know the actual home and away lineup for each team’s games on a week-by-week basis. You can actually apply some handicapping skills to the whole win total equation.
Each NFL team’s total projected wins have been posted for quite some time. Free agency, the recent college player draft and the official schedule release have impacted the early money on these types of NFL futures bets.
The juice at most online sportsbooks was originally set at -115 for the OVER and the UNDER on that projected total. As money started coming in on specific bets, that juice moved accordingly.
For example, the OVER on the Baltimore Ravens’ projected 9.5 wins have been a hot bet at -145 odds. The AFC’s Buffalo Bills have been another hot betting team this offseason. The money line odds for the OVER on 11.5 wins is now -130.
NFL Overall Handicapping Value
Handicapping NFL win totals is all about finding the value in the odds. Just because the betting public is hot on one side versus the other, does not make it a good bet. You need a solid reason to bet the OVER or UNDER on any team’s projected wins. Popularity with early football bettors is not a good reason.
Washington is a franchise in turmoil with the team owner in the news for all the wrong reasons. With a projected total of eight wins in 2022, there may be some actual value in betting the -130 odds on the UNDER.
A great starting point for finding the best value is to start with all the plus money betting options.
You can get +115 odds on the UNDER 9.5 wins for the San Francisco 49ers. There is some great talent on this team. But winning 10 or more games would still be quite an accomplishment. More than a few things went their way in last year’s 10-7 campaign that could easily work against the 49ers this season.
You can also get +130 for betting the UNDER 8.5 wins for the Minnesota Vikings. They have only crossed the eight-win mark twice in their last six seasons.
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Tips When Handicapping 2022 NFL Win Totals
The real trick to handicapping NFL win total futures is to look past current public perception. You need to make an honest assessment of any NFL team. Then take a closer look at its actual regular season schedule.
Take most of the weight off of last year’s results. Then look for where that same team might get derailed in 2022.
Look at road games coming off a Monday night game. Or games with extended travel issues for teams on the East or West Coast. Maybe back-to-back road games against division opponents. These are all important factors when it comes to one extra win or one extra loss during the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won at least 10 games in each of the past seven seasons. Betting the UNDER on 10.5 wins at -115 does not make all that much sense. However, there are more than enough NFL teams with very little consistency from one season to the next that definitely add value to the UNDER bet on their projected total wins.
