If you are looking to bet on baseball in 2023, you have come to the right place. Smarter bettors have developed a number of strategies that pay off big dividends. In this article, we focus on just a few tips that make 2023 a baseball betting success.
Key Points
– To bet on baseball this season, bettors should consider a few strategies.
– The ability to recognize reverse line movement can help your baseball betting.
Baseball Betting in 2023
Unlike basketball and football, baseball is a moneyline sport. The majority of NFL wagers, for example, are made on the point spread. Although possible, point spread bets – known as run line bets – in baseball are less prevalent.
Moneyline bets are easy to understand. Bettors wager on a favorite or an underdog. According to the odds, the favorite is more likely to win. Remember that when you wager on the favorite, your profits are likely to be less than your initial stake.
A greater payoff will normally be offered if you win an underdog wager. All of this is based on the moneyline odds for a certain game.
The point spread is another option available to MLB bettors. The spread, or run line in baseball, is usually set at 1.5 runs. The odds on the favorite and underdog will vary.
Baseball totals bets allow players to wager on the Over or Under. The final cumulative score is predicted by bettors to go Over or Under a predetermined limit specified by oddsmakers.
Another noteworthy aspect of baseball is the extensive schedule of games. There are many opportunities for wiseguys and casual bettors alike to strengthen their edge because there are 2,430 regular-season games played in a season.
Here is some baseball betting advice for this season.
EDITOR’S CHOICE: THE MARIA STAKING STRATEGY
Bet on Baseball – Avoid Big Favorites
The average bettor favors favorites. The oddsmakers are aware of this and take advantage of it. The general public will place bets on teams like the Yankees or Dodgers whether they are given odds of -150 or -175.
As a result, some favorites may become expensive. It would be advisable for bettors to avoid them. Since 2005, MLB regular season favorites with odds of -150 or more have won around 63% of their games.
That indicates that the favorites lost 37% of the time. Spending $175 on a favorite to win $100 and lose can rapidly add up. You run the risk of losing a lot of money because you are continually laying a negative number.
The payments are small when favorites prevail. At -275, you might believe that the Yankees are a lock. You staked $275 and received $100. If the Yankees lose, you lose a lot of money. When they win, you win a relatively small amount.
In learning to bet on baseball, skip the big MLB favorites. Find other bets that offer more value. You can CLICK HERE to read more about the challenges of betting baseball on Opening Day.
The Plus-Money Underdog
Sports bettors should be aware that they must win 52.4 percent of the time in order to break even at standard (-110) odds. By betting on underdogs, bettors can win at a rate lower than 50% and still come out ahead.
On any given day’s slate, there are some formidable underdogs. Consider placing three $100 wagers on underdogs with odds of +120, +150, and +170. A $300 investment yields $540 in return. However, picking underdogs at random is not a good strategy. But if you do your research, you can locate ones that are reasonably priced and have a chance to win.
Fade the Public When You Bet on Baseball
Betting against the public is not a novel concept. It makes sense to wager against the public because they lose the majority of the time. The typical bettor bets based on instinct. Favorite teams, home teams, well-known brands, and teams with great players are things they look for regularly.
Another factor that influences public bettors is recency bias. If a team performed well in their previous game, they will bet on them. Likewise, they will fade teams that played poorly in the prior game.
By betting against the public, bettors can benefit from exaggerated odds and skewed public opinion. An added benefit is to position oneself next with the book. We all know the house always wins.
Since 2007, if an MLB bettor had placed bets on the games that had the most action and won bets on underdogs that received less than 40% of all moneyline bets, they would have won about 44% of the time. They would have won big too because of the plus-money odds.
Look for Reverse Line Movement
Baseball involves more than just selecting short favorites and plus-money underdogs. Bettors need to pay attention to what experienced bettors are doing. One of the greatest ways to recognize sharp – or professional – action is to look for reverse line movement (RLM). This happens when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of the way it should move.
Let’s use the Cubs at -150 playing the Brewers (+130) as an example. A full 75% of the moneyline bets go to Chicago, yet the Cubs’ line drops to -135 while the Brewers’ line has adjusted to +115.
Why would the bookies alter the odds in the public’s favor while betting on the Cubs? It’s because professional bettors intervened and placed some sizable bets on the Brewers.
This may be a situation where you consider paying for handicapper’s picks. Most cappers will offer their reasoning behind their picks. This may help you learn more about reverse line movement.
Since 2005, MLB teams (favorites as well as underdogs) which got less than 35% of the moneyline bets and had a reverse line movement of at least one penny won 44% of the time. If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or more, the situation improves considerably more.
Divisional Dogs
In MLB, divisional teams play each other 13 times per season. Playing a team so frequently fosters some familiarity. That benefits the underdog.
In games played outside of the division since 2005, underdogs have lost a total of around 645 units. In divisional games, betting on underdogs would have netted a loss of about 70 units. That’s a significant difference.
Baseball bettors have even more options for picking divisional underdogs. Road divisional underdogs, especially in games with totals of 8.5 or higher, tend to do very well for bettors. A road divisional underdog offers value to bettors because the general public tends to overvalue home teams. Since 2005, wagering on road divisional underdogs in games with high totals has resulted in profits of more than 70 units.
