How to make strong betting choices is the key to your success.
Key Points
– Making better betting choices comes down to a couple key points.
– Knowing how to find value is a key in making strong betting choices.
How to Make Strong Betting Choices
Bettors of all experience levels usually have a common problem. With sportsbooks now full of betting options, bettors are having a difficult time choosing their bets. There are so many bets on the board now that it can be overwhelming at times.
Just choosing a sport can be a chore in itself. There are the major sports like football, basketball, baseball, and hockey; but bettors can’t forget about sports like soccer, golf, and tennis.
Add in thousands of bet types and the problem becomes even greater. With all these choices, how is the average bettor supposed to choose what to bet on? How can you avoid the trap of staring at your computer screen or smartphone trying to pick a bet?
Strong betting choices start with knowing what to look for.
Look for Value Not Winners
Bettors that simply look for wins are more likely to end up in the red. More wins doesn’t always mean more to the bankroll. Chasing wins is not a strategy that a smart bettor should follow. Here’s why.
Keep in mind that all bets do not pay out the same. Bettors can win tons of bets but still lose money. Bettors have to pay attention to the odds, which can help in finding value.
The betting public loves favorites. While favorites tend to win a lot, betting on favorites all the time is a recipe for disaster. As an example, let’s make four bets all on big favorites. We put down $100 each on four favorites all given -500 odds to win.
Chasing wins, you go 3-1 and are excited. Three of the four favorites won and, on paper, you look solid. Then, you check your wallet. That tells a different story.
The winning bets paid out $20 each giving you $60. The problem is that one of the $100 bets lost meaning the net profit on these four wagers is minus-$40. Do that a couple times in a row and all of a sudden your bankroll is gone.
BETTORS READ THIS >>> THE PHILOSOPHY OF SHARP BETTORS
That’s why it makes more sense to find strong value bets instead of trying to pick winners and losers.
How to Find Value
What bettors must understand in order to find value bets is something called implied probability. The idea here is that bettors want to choose bets that will pay more than they should. To help grasp the concept, let’s look at an example.
You have two teams – Team Red and Team Black. You believe Team Red has an 80 percent chance of winning. This correlates to Team Red’s odds of winning which are -400. A $100 bet on Red would pay out $25.
Let’s say you log in to your sportsbook account and find that Team Red is listed at -200 to win. That correlates to an implied probability of 66.67 percent. You think Red has a better chance of winning than the sportsbook does.
At -200 odds, this bet would pay out $50 to the winner. That’s more than you think it should. That is value and this is the type of scenario that you would look for to make smarter, more valuable bets.
Make Strong Betting Choices on Underdogs
Bettors can really find value on certain underdogs. This is especially true for MLB bettors. Betting repeatedly on heavy MLB favorites will not add to the bankroll like hitting a few well-placed value bets on underdogs.
Let’s make four bets again, but this time we will place them on four underdogs all given +400 odds. When it’s all said and done, you only won on one of the bets. Compared to the guy betting the favorites, your 1-3 record doesn’t look all that hot.
While the record isn’t great, your bankroll is doing just fine. You lost $300 on the three losing bets, but you won $400 on the winner. That means you profited $100. That is value and repeatedly finding it will not only make you more money, but it will make you a smarter bettor.
Find Your Specialty
The betting public loves to bet the major sports and there is plenty of value to be found there. What many bettors might not realize is the value to be found in betting on sports like golf, tennis, NASCAR, and more.
Sportsbooks put more of their focus on the big revenue sports. Live betting is relatively new and sportsbooks are still working out the kinks. The odds and lines are tighter on more traditional bets whereas smart bettors can find tremendous odds when betting the winner of a given golf tournament.
It’s common to find the favorite of a golf event listed between +300 and +800. Underdogs in these events come in at even more favorable odds.
Don’t forget the less popular bets in various sports. The First Five Innings bet in MLB, for example, is a great bet when an elite pitcher is on the mound against a weaker team. Bettors can take the elite pitcher’s team to win on the First Five moneyline or cover the First Five spread, whichever bet offers more value.
The NBA has its Race to 20 Points. It’s a game prop that provides value to bettors that know what to look for.
You might have an NBA team that is not favored to win, but they score the most first-quarter points in the NBA. You find the team listed at plus-money in the Race to 20 Points. It’s just another example of a bet that offers value.
Making strong betting choices comes down to things – finding value and doing the research. Finding quality bets takes time. Take your time, find value, find your niche, and reap the benefits.
