The challenges of betting baseball on Opening Day.
Key Points
– You will never know less about an MLB team during a season than you will on Opening Day.
– The public makes baseball betting even harder on Opening Day.
The Challenges of Betting Baseball on Opening Day
Opening Day is an amazing day for baseball bettors and fans. It is a time when everything is fresh and still attainable. In addition, it marks the conclusion of an offseason that seemed to drag on for months. Weren’t we just watching numerous games every day?
Opening day, however, can present some special obstacles for bettors who aren’t watchful. That can be expensive if you aren’t thinking about them. Here are a number of issues that present a challenge when betting baseball on Opening Day.
Heavy Public Betting
Public betting is substantial at the beginning of every MLB season. The season opener is a major event for public bettors, or those that really don’t know much about baseball betting. Public bettors like to wager on favorites, popular teams, and teams with popular players. These bettors don’t pay much attention to strategy.
The average bettor should know how the betting public affects lines and odds. It’s one of the habits of the losing sports bettor to avoid.
In most seasons, very little betting interest will be seen for a midweek game in April. But, MLB Opening Day will bring in a lot of cash. These public bettors will bet primarily on emotion because they have little else to fall back on and no other games to draw inspiration from.
This implies that public favorites will attract a significant portion of bets and that big-name pitchers and free agents will be overbet. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros are popular favorites and will see tons of betting action. So much so, that these public teams will often be overpriced on Opening Day.
Baseball bettors should consider this before placing any Opening Day bets.
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Opening Day Baseball Betting Generates Big Crowds
Opening Day is a major event in many MLB cities. Teams will typically sell out for their home opener. By mid April, the stands are nowhere near Opening Day levels as the novelty of a new season wears off.
Playing at home is often an advantage on Opening Day because of the size of the crowds. Sportsbooks will often bake that into their odds as well. Smart bettors know this as they look for value in Opening Day baseball bets.
Pre-Game Is Hard on Starting Pitchers
Teams will often hold a ceremony to bring in the new season on Opening Day. Such ceremonies have a propensity to linger on and that affects both teams and their pre-game preparations.
The starting pitchers for either team may find that difficult. They will be warming up through the ceremony. They may have to change their warm-up routine if the ceremony takes too long. Some pitchers won’t care, but there are enough guys that rely on their pre-game routine. Any deviation from it messes with their head.
MLB games typically start at the time they are supposed to begin. If it says 7:08, the umpire is usually saying “Play ball!” right at 7:08. Still, some pitchers will be thrown off because of all the hoopla surrounding an Opening Day celebration.
Even a brief delay before the start of a game can throw some pitchers off their game.
Pitching Rest
Teams aim to have their starting pitching rotations in order going into the first game, with their aces prepared to pitch on Opening Day. That doesn’t always happen. Pitchers can be thrown off of their regular rest.
Sometimes, the spring training schedule gets messed up and an ace pitcher might need an extra day or two of rest before he takes the mound. Or, a pitcher might get the extra rest without needing it. Some pitchers actually do not manage extra rest very well. They like routine.
Bettors like routine as well. This is why they should be getting ready to bet MLB spring training right now.
This can be true for some position players too. They get used to the routine of playing almost every day and then they get a few days off before Opening Day. That can be detrimental in some cases.
Betting Baseball on Young Players on Opening Day
Guys that haven’t been there before don’t know what to expect. Young players can be particularly anxious on Opening Day. It is a really important occasion for players who are new to the league or who were called up for the first time in the middle of the season last year.
It’s something young players have been looking forward to for a long time. The thrill and excitement of Opening Day can have a dramatic effect on players’ performances.
Even in the best cases, it might be difficult to predict what to expect from young players. In these situations, it may be even more difficult to believe that a young player will be able to reach his full potential.
Lack of Information
Almost no information exists for the baseball handicapper. Baseball betting is all about analyzing the past and figuring out what it signifies for the future. There is no past on Opening Day, at least none that is really significant.
You can’t rely on anything from the previous season to effectively forecast what will happen on Opening Day. Teams undergo roster changes and you know nothing of how a team will play in the new season.
That doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on Opening Day. It just means you should be extremely careful. You need a solid justification for placing a bet. You will never know less about MLB teams heading into the regular season than you will on Opening Day. That is the challenge!
